Daily Archives: December 29, 2018

Time posted: 1:43 pm

Saturday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, folks. It’s a much colder day in the bluegrass state, but it’s all eyes on another potent storm system on the way to close out 2018. I have no changes with this storm or the one that tries to follow it up during the first few days of the new year.

Some highlights of the New Year’s Eve storm:

  • Rain moves in Sunday night and will be heavy at times as a warm front lifts northward through the state.
  • Warmer air moves in for Sunday and temps surge into the 60s central and eastern Kentucky.
  • A squall line of showers and thunderstorms will sweep eastward across the state during the afternoon and evening.
  • Heavy rains of 1″-3″ will be possible during this event, especially in the west and central parts of Kentucky.
  • Some, at least, local high water issues will be possible.
  • High winds are going to be a major player and could reach between 50mph and 60mph.
  • Another round of wind damage is possible with this event.

Here’s how this storm looks…

Colder air crashes in behind this with system for New Year’s Day. As northwesterly winds kick in, I can’t rule out some flurries or snow showers late in the day into Wednesday.

The next system to potentially impact our weather would arrive Thursday into Friday. The GFS and new GFS are both well south and develop no storm…

The European Model has another major storm impacting the state with heavy rain, heavy snow and gusty winds…

That run of the Euro trended colder than the overnight run. One of the biases of the model is to be too far west with such systems because it holds on to the southwestern energy too long.

The Canadian continues to throw some¬†snow into Kentucky…

The Icon Model continues to be farther north with rain and snow…

As you can see, it’s the entire modelling world verses the GFS and that’s usually a bad sign for the American model. As always, we shall see.

I will update things this evening. Make it a good one and take care.

15 Comments

Time posted: 2:11 am

One More Big Storm To End 2018

Good Saturday, everyone. Our New Year’s Weekend is off and running with colder and drier air pressing into the region. This air is between monster storm systems, with the next one due up on the final day of the year. This is going to bring more heavy rain and high winds our way.

This is another in a long line of big time storms to impact our region this year, so it’s appropriate for Mother Nature to throw one more at us as we close it out. It’s almost as if she’s just trolling us now. ūüôā

Here’s a breakdown of how this may play out:

  • Heavy rainfall of 1″-3″ may show up in many areas, especially western and central parts of the state. That would be enough to cause local high water issues, at least.
  • Winds are going to be a major player once again. Those gusts may reach 50mph-60mph at times. Given the wet ground,¬† uprooted trees may become an issue.
  • We will need to be on guar for a few strong to severe storms by Monday afternoon. Dewpoints¬†surge into the 60s with increased instability just ahead of the low and front. That could help spawn some pretty big thunderstorms.

Let’s start with the heavy rain part of the storm. A general 1″-3″ show up, especially central and western parts of the state…

Flash flooding and general flooding issues may develop and that includes along some of the rivers.

High winds are also a major player and may cause damage across the bluegrass state. Gusts of 50mph -60mph will be possible in many areas. The European has gusts between 60 and 70mph…

Those gusts would easily cause damage across our region.

I can’t even rule out a few strong or severe¬†thunderstorms going up during the afternoon and early evening.

Colder air crashes in for New Year’s Day, but the active pattern isn’t going anywhere. As expected, that next storm system continues to correct west on the models and is likely to impact our weather by Thursday and Friday. In what form depends on the track of the low and the upper low spinning in behind it.

The Canadian Model keeps creeping west and is getting stronger…

The GFS is the GFS and has this storm way far to the south and east with zero impact in Kentucky. The new version of the GFS does get the southern and eastern parts of the state…

The ICON and European Models are much stronger and much farther west, bringing heavy rain and snow to the state.

ICON

The European is the farthest west of the bunch…

I’ll have my usual updates later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

24 Comments