Daily Archives: December 30, 2018

Time posted: 7:47 pm

Sunday Night Update

Good evening, everyone. It’s a very active end to 2018 as rounds of showers and thunderstorms drench the region. We are tracking the potential for enough rain to cause local flooding problems, high winds, and a few strong to severe thunderstorms for the final day of the year.

Heavy rain and some thunder will quickly develop tonight as a warm front moves in from the southwest. These fronts can be overachievers in terms of rainfall and that has me a little more concerned for local high water issues tonight and early Monday. Then, a line of thunderstorms works east with another round of torrential rains late day into the evening.

Here’s where I think has the greatest risk for, at least, local high water issues to develop…

You can see this massive round of rain developing and rolling in from the southwest…

As that warm front lifts to the north, instability, temps and humidity surge. As the low works south to north just to our west, it will cause thunderstorms to increase across Kentucky and Tennessee. Some of those storms may be severe with damaging winds and a tornado or two possible. The SPC has much of the region in a severe weather risk for New Year’s Eve…

With or without severe thunderstorms, high winds appear to be a good bet once again. Those gusts may reach 50mph or greater at times.

As of now, there are no wind advisories or flood watches anywhere across our region.

Cold air pours in behind this system on New Year’s Day as we wait on the next storm to target this region. This will likely bring rain and snow our way Thursday and Friday. It’s still way too early for any kind of specifics other than I do expect some rain and snow in Kentucky.

The GFS is still seeing this storm, but flips and flops from run to run…

The late day new version of the GFS shows quite a bit of rain and snow impacting our weather…

Again, we shall see how this works out.

Enjoy the rest of your evening and take care.

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Time posted: 1:40 pm

Severe Storms and High Winds To End 2018

Good afternoon, folks. New Year’s Eve continues to look very active across the bluegrass state as another massive storm targets the region. Heavy rain, high winds and severe thunderstorms look to sweep across Kentucky, causing some issues along the way.

  • Rain moves in tonight and will be heavy at times as a warm front lifts northward through the state.
  • Warmer air moves in for Monday and temps surge into the 60s central and eastern Kentucky.
  • A squall line of showers and thunderstorms will sweep eastward across the state during the afternoon and evening.
  • Heavy rains of 1″-3″ will be possible during this event, especially in the west and central parts of Kentucky.
  • Some, at least, local high water issues will be possible.
  • High winds are going to be a major player and could reach between 50mph and 60mph. Another round of wind damage is possible with this event.
  • A few strong to severe storms are possible across much of the state. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible in this environment.

The Storm Prediction Center now has a Marginal to Slight Risk for much of the state…

The storm that comes after this is still in the “YTBD” category. This likely brings rain and snow to Kentucky Thursday into Friday, but there are too many unanswered questions remaining for me to be more specific than that.

The GFS continues to see the storm, but it cannot figure out what to do with it. The morning run of the model teased us…

The same model run from 6 hours earlier dropped the snow hammer on us…

That actually matches what the Canadian Model has been showing for a few days. The new Canadian shows the same thing…

The new version of the GFS is a cross between the Canadian and GFS…

The European Model continues to be the slowest with the whole evolution and that’s likely because of the model bias of holding energy too long in the southwest. That leads to a farther west solution…

That just looks odd, but we shall see.

I will drop by for another update this evening. Have a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 2:07 am

Here We Go Again

Good Sunday, folks. As the wettest year on record for many draws to a close, we have another big storm system rolling into the region. This will bring heavy rain and high winds back into the bluegrass state. This will bring the potential for wind damage and local high water issues.

Here’s a breakdown of our latest storm system…

  • Rain moves in tonight and will be heavy at times as a warm front lifts northward through the state.
  • Warmer air moves in for Sunday and temps surge into the 60s central and eastern Kentucky.
  • A squall line of showers and thunderstorms will sweep eastward across the state during the afternoon and evening.
  • Heavy rains of 1″-3″ will be possible during this event, especially in the west and central parts of Kentucky.
  • Some, at least, local high water issues will be possible.
  • High winds are going to be a major player and could reach between 50mph and 60mph.
  • Another round of wind damage is possible with this event.
  • A few strong to severe storms are possible in the central and west.

The Storm Prediction Center has this area in a low risk for severe weather…

Much colder air sweeps in behind this system to start the new year as we watch another southern stream storm system. If you’re a regular reader, you know the models were showing barely any kind of system well to our south and east. I’ve talked about how they would correct themselves as we got closer and they would increase this system and show it farther west. Well, that’s what’s happening.

The GFS had a whole lot of nothing until the overnight run, then it decided to find the storm…

So did the new version of the GFS…

The Canadian Model is going bonkers with the system…

The European Model appears to still be dragging its feet with the upper low…

What does all this mean for Kentucky’s weather? It’s still way too early for specifics, but rain and snow will threaten the region Thursday into Friday. That’s about as good as I can give you from this far out. 🙂

I will have updates later today. Have a great Sunday and take care.

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