Daily Archives: January 3, 2019

Time posted: 7:39 pm

Thursday Evening Update

Good evening, folks. Rain is rolling toward Kentucky to give us another soaker for Friday. From there, the focus is on a slowly evolving pattern that has more of a sustained winter look to it, maybe starting as early as next weekend.

I have no changes to the rain rolling in late tonight through Friday night. Local 1″-1.5″ rain amounts will show up and that could cause a few local high water issues.

Can we get a touch of winter weather out of this system? There’s a slight chance for some sleet on the leading edge of the rain early Friday, then the chance for a few snowflakes under the core of the upper low Friday night. That’s now showing up on the NAM…

That system quickly leaves us alone Saturday morning with much better weather moving in this weekend. A mix of sun and clouds will be noted Saturday with highs in the 40s for many, with 50 in the west. Sunday looks even better as temps hit the 50s under a partly to mostly sunny sky.

The next system comes from the northern stream on Monday and early Tuesday. That’s a cold front that delivers gusty showers and a shot of chill.

Temps rebound and turn mild for the second half of next week, but bigger changes continue to show up by next weekend. The European Model is REALLY changing the entire pattern during this time. Check out the cold and snow potential on the model run…

To illustrate the pattern change showing up on the European, look at the direct discharge of arctic air into the country…

The GFS is taking on a similar look…

Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 2:04 am

Another Soaker Ahead

Good Thursday, folks. It’s another mainly dreary day across the bluegrass state, with another rain maker on the way for Friday. That will bring the chance for additional high water issues in a few spots. As we look ahead into next week, some changes are showing up as we shutdown the southern storm supply, allowing cold fronts to actually enter the picture.

Temps today are in the 40s with a few breaks in the clouds trying to show up in the north. An area of rain is showing up in the south and southeast early on, but that moves away fairly quickly…

The next system is a slow-moving low pressure working in here from the southwest. That system brings more rain, locally heavy, to much of the bluegrass state…

That could be enough to cause a few more local high water issues.

That quickly pulls away early Saturday, leaving us with a very nice weekend. Temps head back into the 50s with some honest to goodness sunshine taking over! Woot!

I’ve mentioned the changes showing up for next week as we shut down the parade of southern storms. This allows the northern stream to take control, sending cold fronts our way. The first arrives on Monday with gusty showers and a sharp temp drop for Tuesday…

A few flurries may even show up behind that front.

The cold with that will not hold as we get one more really good surge of mild temps into the second half of next week. But, the groundwork is being laid for bigger system to slide in next weekend that will unleash even colder air and a different pattern.

The Euro shows this well…

The Canadian has it, too…

This arrives right on cue with what many of the analog years have been suggesting and matches up with a change in the MJO… Not to mention the splitting of the Polar Vortex. Cold and snow lovers should approve of how the second half of winter is shaping up. Me? I’m more of a first half of winter guy, but as we discussed a few days ago, Old Man Winter just doesn’t roll that way anymore.

I will have updates later today. Make it a good one and take care.

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