Daily Archives: January 6, 2019

Time posted: 7:32 pm

Updating The Return Of Winter

Good evening, folks. As I mentioned yesterday. this weather has “springtime CB” ready to hit the fast forward button, but Old Man Winter has other ideas. Winter is fighting back this week and has an increasing snow potential by he end of the week into next weekend.

A cold front moves toward the region late Monday, bringing gusty showers into town. The cold air is lagging behind the second system arriving late Tuesday into Tuesday night. That sets the stage for a very cold middle and end of the week. Below freezing highs show up Wednesday and Thursday, with gusty winds making it feel much, much colder. A few flurries and snow showers fly across the eastern half of the state on this northwest flow.

This brings us to the late week and weekend winter weather potential. Once again, I’ve been saying to watch for the models to see much more of a system than what they had been showing the past few days. Right on cue, they are doing just that.

The GFS is a “go big or go home” model. The last run was in the “go home” camp and didn’t really show much with this storm. The latest run is in the “go big” camp…

The new version of the GFS has had much more of a system than the GFS it’s about to replace. The current run is also “go big”…

The European Model is finally starting to understand the energy isn’t going to hang back in the southwest, so it’s kicking more and more of it out sooner. That means it’s seeing more and more of a winter weather threat for our region…

Watch for this system to grow stronger on the European in the coming days.

The ICON Model is also seeing more of a system than the Euro…

This is a legitimate storm system for us to watch this week. The seasonal trends for these systems to become stronger is something that we cannot deny. Why would this one be any different than the others? Well… Here’re a couple of ways… It actually has cold air ahead of it already in place and there’s high pressure to the north of the storm.

You will see lots of model swings over the next day or so before they start coming together by Wednesday. Moral of the story is to not get too excited or depressed based on any one run until then. 🙂

That said, this week is kind of the transition week into a very wintry setup for our region. The Ensembles are seeing the transition pretty well as we head into the middle of the month…

GFS Ensembles

European Ensembles…

Check back later tonight for a full update. Until then, have a great evening and take care.

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Time posted: 2:16 am

Starting The Change Back To Winter

Good Sunday, folks. It’s another absolutely gorgeous weather day across the bluegrass state of Kentucky. Plenty of partly sunny skies and temps deep into the 50s will combine to make this another winner! As we look into the week ahead, the colder signal continues to show up as we march toward a rocking and rolling second half to winter.

Let’s begin with today and roll forward. It’s gorgeous.  Ok, let’s roll forward. 🙂

Highs on Monday will be well into the 50s again as clouds increase and winds gust up. Late day showers increase as a cold front drops in from the northwest. There’s a second front behind that, with the cold air really surging in behind this for Wednesday and Thursday. Wind chills really drop…

That strong northwesterly wind will produce some cold wind chills and give us a few days with below freezing highs. It may also spawn a few flurries or snow showers across the eastern half of Kentucky.

The late week/next weekend system continues to show up, but is showing up different on each model run.

The new version of the GFS has winter weather maker, but isn’t ready to make it into a bigger system…

As expected, the GFS is the most progressive, which is a known bias of the models…

The Canadian is most wrapped up, but not as much as earlier runs…

The European Model continues to be the slowest, likely playing into the model’s own bias of holding systems back in the southwest too long…

Given the trends and the overall setup, it’s hard to argue we won’t see the models correct west with that storm in the coming days. Regardless, unlike its predecessors, it actually has cold air already in place ahead of it. We shall see.

Something that’s about to get a lot of attention in the weather world is the pattern setting up into the middle and end of the month. This is a heck of a setup for some serious winter weather potential across the eastern half of the country…

I’ve put the various blocking signatures showing up on the ensembles as we head into the second half of the month. If you’re a regular reader of the blog from years past, you know those are the big 4 for me.

I will have updates later today. Have a good one and take care.

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