Daily Archives: January 7, 2019

Time posted: 7:39 pm

Winter Weather Update

Good evening, folks. Gusty winds and scattered showers are rolling across the state as we get ready to usher Old Man Winter back into town. The cold air coming this week is the opening act to a bigger system waiting on us for the coming weekend. Confidence continues to increase on a winter weather impact from that storm.

This is a massive update, so sit back and relax. 🙂

The evening showers are out there, but the rain isn’t that much of an issue…

Cold air waits until Tuesday night to surge in here and really sets up shop for Wednesday and Thursday. Those two days are going to be quite the shock as highs stay below freezing, with 30mph wind gusts making it feel MUCH colder.

The northwest wind is usually good for some flurries or snow showers across central and eastern Kentucky. You can see some of those on the HI-Res Nam…

This brings us to the end of the week/weekend storm potential. Confidence is high that winter weather will impact our region from late Friday through Sunday. The extent of that impact remains to be seen. Much of that depends on how much interaction we get between the northern branch and the southern branch. That will dictate where this storm goes and how strong it gets.

As I have mentioned many times, this is a different setup from the storm systems of the past 3-4 weeks. We have cold air already in place and a cold high to the north of it.

The GFS rolls this thing from west to east across the south, with an inverted trough into our region…

The new version of the GFS is far and away the farthest north solution, but doesn’t have very many model friends to play with. Still, the model puts down quite a bit of winter weather…

The majority of the individual members of the GFS Ensembles are ere a healthy hit for the bluegrass state…

Here’s the average of those 21 members…

The European Model continues to struggle with the southwestern energy and is likely too slow with it, keeping the storm system too weak. The Euro actually has two lows…

That leads to much more of a disjointed looking snow shield… 

The JMA has a southern low working west to east with an inverted trough into our region, then it turns the corner up the coast…

The colors are barometric pressure anomalies and not temperatures. Notice the big high pressure funneling cold air into this storm from the north. That’s something we did not have with the past several systems.

I said over the weekend that it won’t be until later Tuesday or Wednesday that we get this thing into better focus on the models. I still believe that to be true. Still, the signal is there for winter weather, potentially significant, this weekend for much of our region. Will this become a “threat” storm? Very possible.

I’ll see you guys later tonight for the full update. Until then, make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 12:35 pm

Monday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. We’ve got a cold front working into Kentucky, bringing a big change in our weather. Winter is on the way back this week and things look very interesting by late Friday into the weekend. That’s when a developing winter storm tries to target the bluegrass state.

Let’s begin with the gusty band of rain rolling across the state from west to east. This is along and ahead of front number one…

Front number two sweeps in late Tuesday and that’s got the cold air with it. Temps tank and may not get above freezing for Wednesday and Thursday. Winds are going to be very gusty, taking those wind chill numbers way down. A few flurries or snow showers are possible across the eastern half of the state.

This brings us to the setup for the weekend. One system is diving in from the northwest as a system comes from the southwest. How these two work together will be the big determining factor on how big our storm gets and exactly where it goes.

Unlike the storm systems of the past month or so, this one has cold air already in place ahead of it and a fresh cold high to the north of it. That increases our odds of winter weather across the entire region.

The latest GFS is a big hitter for our part of the world…

The Canadian Model has had a tough time finding this system, but is in the process of doing so. It doesn’t phase as quickly as the GFS, but still has a healthy winter weather showing around here…

The ICON Model is also on board with a healthy impact…

I’m off your tv today, but I will have another blog update this evening. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 1:49 am

Winter Fights Back This Week

Good Monday, everybody. Here’s hoping you had a great weekend and had the chance to enjoy some of the gorgeous weather we had. As we head into the first full week of the new year, Old Man Winter fights his way back into the region this week. The temp trend is down and we are on guard for a potential late week/weekend winter weather maker.

Let us start with today before we roll forward. Clouds are thickening on a windy and mild day. Those clouds are ahead of a cold front moving our way. This will bring an increase in showers later this afternoon into the evening…

A second front arrives on Tuesday with a few more showers. The air behind this front is very cold, with even colder wind chills. Those wind chills may sneak into the single digits by Thursday morning.

Our northwest wind flow may also be strong enough to spit out some flurries or snow showers across the eastern half of the state. Here are the areas with the best chance of seeing some flakes…

Again, just some flakes. 🙂

The setup for the end of the week into the weekend continues to look like a winter weather maker for our region. This storm system continues to show up very well on most of the forecast models and I suspect they may still be a little undercooked on the strength.

I mentioned how the models would go back and forth on strength and track of this system. The GFS is exhibit A…

The new version of the GFS is the most wrapped up and farthest west of the current models…

That’s a lot of winter weather for our region.

The European Model continues to get stronger, but is showing two waves of low pressure with both bringing winter weather across the state…

If we look at the 21 individual members of the GFS Ensembles, we find many of them targeting our region…

Nothing is set in stone, so let’s give it another day or two and see how this thing looks before getting too excited. As of now, their is an increased potential for winter weather impacting our region late Friday through the weekend.

As we focus on the pattern later next week, we continue to find a major change in the overall northern hemispheric setup. Yesterday, I outlined the four big blocking signatures showing up on the ensembles during this time. Those continue to show up strongly, leading to some of the coldest air relative to normal in the northern hemisphere moving into the eastern half of the country…

That’s one heck of a look!!

I will have updates later today, so check back. Make it a great Monday and take care.

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