Daily Archives: January 8, 2019

Time posted: 7:35 pm

Winter Weather Thoughts

Good evening, folks. Temps are beginning to drop and will tank in a hurry later tonight into Wednesday. This cold air will settle in for the rest of the week, setting the stage for winter weather by the weekend. The threat for accumulating snow continues to increase for much of the region.

The European Model for the weekend system has much more of a snow signal than earlier runs, but also shows the southern half of the state with some mixing and rain issues on Saturday, before going back to some snow on Sunday. The following maps go from Friday night through Sunday night…

Here’s the snowfall map from that run of the European Model…

Notice how it’s turning the “bridge” into more of a straight road from Missouri to the Mid-Atlantic. The control run of the European Ensembles from WeatherBell is doing the same thing…

The WeatherBell European Ensembles average from 51 different members has a healthy event from west to east…

The latest GFS has a little more mixing in there, cutting down on totals in parts of western and southern Kentucky…

Should we even trust the GFS or any of the American Models? Apparently the government shutdown means there’s no one to maintain or fix any issues the models may have…

That’s interesting and something we will take note of going forward.

I will have the latest on our weekend winter storm potential coming up on WKYT-TV at 11. A full update comes your way later tonight with threat mode looming.

Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:27 pm

Tuesday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, folks. It’s another windy and mild ay in the bluegrass state, but things are set to change quickly tonight and Wednesday. That’s when cold air surges in from the northwest, knocking our temps way, way down. That cold air then sets the stage for a weekend winter weather maker for most of our region.

Temps drop tonight through Wednesday and generally hang out around freezing or below.  Gusty winds make it feel a whole lot colder. That cold carries us into Thursday as wind chills drop into the upper single digits to start the day. Ouch!

A few flurries or snow showers will be noted during this time, with a coating or two in the mountains of the east and southeast possible.

The weekend system still has some question marks left to be answered, but a general theme is emerging on a moderate winter weather event for Kentucky. While that’s not set in stone, confidence is high of this storm impacting the weather where you live.

A few thoughts:

  • The storm system is still a few days from even forming, so changes are a good bet.
  • A swath of snow should overspread much of the state Friday night and early Saturday, but a switch to mixed precipitation is possible in the southern half of the state.
  • Several inches of snow will be possible in areas that stay all snow. The reverse is true for areas seeing more of a mixed bag.
  • None of this means you’re getting a big snow outside your house. If you’re adding that to the equation, that’s on you. 🙂

Here’s my “We’re still three days away, but I’m making a risk map anyway” map…

The Greatest Risk area may move south or north over the next few days, depending on exactly how the storm system comes together.

Here’s a quick check of the models…

GFS

Canadian

Notice how Kentucky bridges the gap between higher amounts to our west and to our east. That’s a rather odd look, so we have to be on guard for that bridge to be a little less of a bridge and more of a straight road.

I will have the latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm. Another update will come your way this evening. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 2:09 am

Here Comes Winter

Good Tuesday, everyone. After a long holiday break, Old Man Winter is ready to return to the bluegrass state in the coming days. Much colder air is surging in and may bring a few flakes with it for the middle of the week. The bigger winter weather threat is lurking for the weekend.

Another weak front is working into the state today and may touch off a shower or two…

Winds are going to be a big time player and may gust 35-40mph at times. Colder air moves in tonight and temps keep sliding to below freezing on Wednesday. Gusty winds may make it feel like the upper teens and low 20s most of the day.

Those wind chills may hit the high single digits by Thursday morning…

The northwest wind will also be able to spit out some flurries or a few snow showers. The Hi Res NAM shows a few streaks going across areas of central and eastern Kentucky, with a little increase in the action in the southeast mountains…

I have no changes to my thought on the late week/weekend storm system. Winter weather is likely to impact much of the region from late Friday through Sunday. The extent of that impact isn’t known just yet, but a decent hit is possible for many across the region.

Let’s get a check on the current status of the forecast models. Remember, these are merely snapshots of the models as they stand now. They will strike different poses from run to run, so don’t be framing any of those prints just yet. 😉

The GFS continues to bring a solid winter weather hit to the region. It continues to have the dividing line across the southern half of the state…

The new version of the GFS is similar, but has a more expansive winter weather shield…

The Canadian Model has a similar line of thinking…

The European Model continues to be the weakest with this system as it is likely too slow with the energy coming in from the southern stream…

Still, there’s no shortage of snow on that run…

We are a little more than 3 days from this event starting, so it’s good to see some pretty good model agreement already coming together. Of course, that means I just jinxed it and they will all show different solutions later today. 🙂

As I have said several times over the past few days, don’t get too excited over any one run or too depressed over any one run. Even slight deviations in the storm’s strength, track or timing can mean a big difference for any one location.

While this is likely a “threat” type of system, let’s see how the models are looking later today and Wednesday. That’s when we should see if any new trends show up.

I will throw you updates later today, so check back. Until the next one, make it a great day and take care.

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