Daily Archives: January 9, 2019

Time posted: 7:38 pm

Updating The Weekend Potential

Good evening, folks. We have cold winds and a few snowflakes showing up right on cue. This is the opening act to a much bigger system moving in by late Friday and taking us through the upcoming weekend.

Before we break down the latest on the weekend, snow showers and flurries will continue to fly across parts of the region this evening into later tonight…

Wind chills are way, way down overnight into Thursday.

In terms of the weekend storm, it’s still too early for anything specific, but here’s a general idea of how this may play out…

Keep in mind those lines may be adjusted north or south over the next few days.

Let’s do a quick check of the models to see how they are looking…

The European Model has a fairly strong system and that’s the farrthest north with the storm system. Here’s the snow map from this latest run from WeatherBell…

The average of the 51 member European Ensembles (WeatherBell) is similar…

The European Model (WeatherBell) control run…

That looks similar to the new version of the GFS…

The actual GFS has much lower totals across the board with this system…

The average of the 21 members from the GFS Ensembles suggest those to be too low…

The ICON model has a similar look to the GFS, but isn’t as choppy looking…

As this pattern continues to skew strongly toward winter over the next few weeks, the ensembles are cranking out additional snow threats after this one…

GFS

Euro

I will have another update on WKYT-TV at 11 and here on KWC later tonight. Make it a good one and take care.

26 Comments

Time posted: 12:24 pm

Winter Weather Thoughts

Good afternoon, folks. Cold winds are blowing across the state, leading to a few flurries and snow showers for parts of the region. From here, it’s all eyes on a developing winter storm taking aim at Kentucky this weekend.

Let me begin with the cold of today and roll ahead. Temps hang in the low 30s with wind chills closer to 20 at times. A few flurries or snow showers are flying in the north and east…

Wind chills tonight drop to around 10 degrees. B to the RR.

My overall thoughts for the upcoming storm haven’t really changed much at all. Some fresh thoughts:

  • The timeline on this winter storm is Friday night through Sunday night.
  • The track of the low is pretty much west to east across the southern states, then it tries to turn the corner up the coast.
  • This low will have an inverted trough into the lower Ohio Valley. That funnels moisture into the cold air, producing accumulating snow for many.
  • The first wave of snow moves across the state Friday night into early Saturday. That will put down accumulating snow statewide.
  • The southern half of the state will see this switch to a rain/snow mix or plain rain for a time on Saturday and Saturday night.
  • All of this should go back over to snow and light snow on Sunday.
  • For areas getting in on all snow for the duration of the event, several inches of snow will be likely.
  • An upgrade is likely in the next update.

 

I’m not going to make changes just yet to the current map I have out…

I will have a brand new map on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm and will update that on KWC this evening.

In terms of the models, they are a little colder than earlier runs. Here’s the GFS…

The Canadian has a similar look…

Again, I will have the latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm and another update here this evening. Make it a good one and take care.

33 Comments

Time posted: 2:23 am

Winter Weather Likely This Weekend

Good Wednesday, everyone. Temps continue to tank today as much colder winds blow in from the northwest. This is being accompanied by a few flakes of snow and looks to be the opening act for a bigger event this weekend. A developing winter storm looks to target much of the bluegrass state.

Let’s begin with today and roll forward. Temps hang into the 30-35 degree range for many, but gusty winds make it feel like the upper teens and low 20s. Those northwest winds should also crank out a few flurries or light snow showers. The best chance for that is across the central and east…

Thursday starts with wind chills around 10 degrees and ends with wind chills in the low 20s. Skies will be partly cloudy.

That brings us to our weekend winter storm system. Here are some thoughts:

  • The timeline on this potential winter storm is Friday night through Sunday night
  • This system is different than the systems we’ve had over the past month. It has cold air already in place and a cold high to the north.
  • The track of the low is pretty much west to east across the southern states, then it tries to turn the corner up the coast.
  • This low will have an inverted trough into the lower Ohio Valley. That funnels moisture into the cold air, producing accumulating snow for many.
  • Still, the southern half of the state may see this switch to a rain/snow mix or plain rain for a time on Saturday and Saturday night.
  • All of this should go back over to snow and light snow on Sunday.
  • For areas getting in on all snow for the duration of the event, several inches of snow will be likely.

Here’s a map of my current line of thinking…

Keep in mind those lines may shift north or south over the next few days. An upgrade to a Winter Storm THREAT may come later today if confidence comes up just a bit.

As far as the forecast models go, we see them with the same general idea, but they are vastly different with the amount of precipitation across the region.

The European Model isn’t holding back…

In my last update, I posted an article on how the government shutdown is negatively impacting the American models like the GFS and NAM. There’s no one around to maintain these models, so the skill scores are apparently dropping off. So, I guess we have to take them with a grain of salt.

Anyway here’s the GFS…

The average snowfall map from the 21 member GFS Ensembles looks like this…

The Canadian…

Once again, let’s wait and see what the model trends are through today and even into Thursday. Don’t get excited or depressed by any one model run.

Updates come your way later today. Make it a good one and take care.

45 Comments