Daily Archives: January 11, 2019

Time posted: 7:25 pm

Tracking The Winter Storm

Good evening, folks. Our winter storm is moving in and I have you all set up to do some tracking in a bit. In the overall scheme of things, I have no real changes to my thoughts with the first round of snow moving in for tonight and early Saturday.

Here’s a look at the current snowfall forecast through Saturday morning…

The current Winter Weather Alerts…

The forecast for Saturday through Sunday still appears to feature accumulating snow in the north with rain for much of the southern half of the state. That snow line may dip into the Interstate 64 corridor Saturday evening and night and that’s something to watch for…

A lighter brand of snow and rain will be with us later Sunday into Sunday, but I can’t rule out some light accumulations…

I know we have a winter storm bearing down on the region, but I do want to talk briefly about how this is the beginning of a major winter period for our region and much of the country. After a little break in the action later next week. another storm may threaten the region next weekend…

The Ensembles over the next two weeks (Including this weekend)…

GFS

Euro Control

Check out the cold…

Remember those analogs for the winter forecast? All of this is showing up right on cue.

I will have the latest snow map on WKYT-TV tonight at 11 and will have another update on KWC late tonight. Until then, I have you all set to track the winter weather…

 

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Newtown Pike
Lexington

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway @ MP 36
Near Pine Ridge

Florence

No image available.

Covington

No image available.

No image available.

Louisville

No image available.

No image available.

No image available.

E-town

No image available.

I-65 MP 36
Near Bowling Green
I-65 MP 36

I-65 @ 234
Near Bowling Green
I-65 @ 234

Natcher Parkway MP 5
Near Bowling Green
Natcher Parkway @ MP 5

US 41A Gate 5 Fort Campbell Entrance
Fort Campbell
US 41A @ Gate 5

I-24  MP 4 @ US 60
Paducah
I-24 @ US 60 MP 4

I-24 MP 7 @ US 62
Paducah
I-24 MP 7 @ US62

Enjoy the evening and take care.

26 Comments

Time posted: 12:24 pm

Winter Storm Alert

Good afternoon, folks. It’s a Winter Storm ALERT for parts of our region through the upcoming weekend. This is a prolonged winter storm that will drop several inches of snow for many, with lighter snows and even rain for other areas.

Let’s begin with the current Winter Weather Alerts…

As of this writing, I think the Winter Storm Warning should be extended just a bit farther south.

Let’s begin with the snow system moving in this afternoon and evening from west to east. I have no substantial changes to the snow ideas with this first round through Saturday morning…

This has the potential to be an overachiever from the Lexington area back toward Louisville and Owensboro. The area where it could underachieve is between Paducah and Bowling Green.

Again, those lines won’t be perfect by any means, but it gives you a general idea of how it may play out. A touch of sleet and freezing rain may mix across parts of the region, but shouldn’t be a big deal.

Let’s get you caught up on what the latest models are seeing through Saturday morning.

NAM

Hi Res NAM

Short Range Canadian

Canadian

GFS

The GFS continues to be different with the thermal profiles than the other models. In turn, the model shows more freeing rain…

That’s likely overdone, which would add a little more to the snow totals than what it shows.

The rest of the weekend continues to see the battle zone between rain and snow setting up across the Interstate 64 corridor. Several inches of snow is likely to fall in far northern Kentucky Saturday afternoon, but a few of the models are bringing the snow potential a little farther south Saturday night and Sunday.

The Hi Res NAM snow map has some 4″+ snow amounts Saturday night/Sunday along and north of the BG Parkway and Interstate 64 in central and eastern Kentucky…

The NAM is trying to hot spot an area of 4″+ snows along the 64 corridor of eastern Kentucky…

Again, those are just totals from Saturday night and Sunday.

Here’s your regional radar to track today’s snow in from the west…

Stay tuned for updates. Have a good one and take care.

36 Comments

Time posted: 2:08 am

Winter Storm Threat Continues

Good Friday, folks. Our developing winter storm is inching closer to the bluegrass state and will throw waves of precipitation at us over the weekend. The first arrives in the west later this afternoon then develops across the rest of the state tonight, This delivers mainly snow, with the additional waves showing more of a split personality later Saturday and Sunday.

Let’s begin with the latest Winter Weather Alerts…

That map should really fill in early today in preparation for the first round of snow working in here from the west. I mentioned a few days ago how this could become an overachiever right out of the gate and that’s certainly a real possibility, especially for areas of central and western parts of the state. Here’s my latest call for snowfall through Saturday morning ONLY…

Will that be perfect? Nope, but it’s a rough estimate of how this may play out.  Again, those lines may go a bit north or south depending on how the day plays out. I will offer up two more snowfall forecasts before the evening, if needed.

A quick check on what the models are showing through around noon on Saturday, finds some impressive numbers.

Here’s the Hi Res NAM

The NAM

Short range Canadian

Canadian

European

GFS

For the rest of the weekend, my thoughts remain pretty much unchanged. The best chance for snow is across the northern parts of the state, with rain across the southern half and a buffer zone in the middle. That’s the zone that could go either way from Saturday afternoon through early Sunday…

A degree or so will make a big difference in where the rain vs. snow line sets up. That may be a game time decision. I will try to focus more on that round at some point today, but the initial round is getting most of my attention out of the gate.

I will have another update by noon or so. Make it a good one and take care.

39 Comments