Daily Archives: January 12, 2019

Time posted: 8:04 pm

Saturday Evening Update

Good evening, folks. It’s just a nasty night across the bluegrass state with rain, sleet and snow taking center stage. I wanted to drop by for a very quick update on the rest of the weekend.

A Winter Weather Advisory and a Winter Storm Warning remain in effect for areas of northern Kentucky…

Those are the areas that will continue to see the best chance for a nasty mix of plain old snow through early Sunday morning. Later Sunday into Sunday night, some light snow will be possible for much of the rest of the region, especially in the southeast.

Here’s how the NAM snow map sees the rest of the weekend…

The Hi Res NAM for the same time…

You will notice how the northern parts of the state continue with the better snow chance and that’s been the forecast from the get go. Can that line sink a little farther south than the models think tonight? That’s, at least, a small possibility.

I’ll see you guys for the late night update as we focus on a harsh second half of winter kicking off.

Until then, track away…

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Newtown Pike
Lexington

I-75/I-65 Northern Split Lexington

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Florence

No image available.

Covington

No image available.

No image available.

Louisville

No image available.

No image available.

Have a great evening and take care.

23 Comments

Time posted: 2:46 pm

Saturday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. Drip, Drip, Drip… That’s what many folks are hearing as the overnight nightfall melts away as temps climb. Now comes the rain for many areas, with the snow potential confined to northern parts of the state, before a lighter brand of snow shows up area-wide late Sunday and Sunday night.

I’ll also talk about the potential for an extreme winter pattern engulfing much of the country.

This is another blowout post, so buckle up.

Let’s begin with our Saturday. The overnight and early morning snow had some winners and some losers. The dry air held tight in northeastern Kentucky, leading to wimpier snows that I thought. Much of the rest of the region played out in decent enough shape.

As mentioned, the snow continues to lift north and hangs around this region into the rest of the afternoon. This is the region still seeing Winter Weather Alerts…

Rain develops for much of the state this afternoon and continues through tonight, with the snow line in the north. How far south that snow line gets is still in question. The NAM brings it farther south than the GFS. Here are the snow maps from late afternoon through Sunday morning…

NAM

GFS

As that pulls away, one small disturbance is leftover for late Sunday into Monday morning. This will be a light mix and light snow maker than can put down light accumulations across, especially southeastern Kentucky…

Temps rebound quickly by the middle of the week before another system moves in with rain by Friday. That takes us into next weekend and another potent setup. The European Model presses arctic air in here with a storm system developing along the boundary…

That’s a snow signal from the lower Mississippi Valley through our region and into the Mid-Atlantic.

The Canadian has a similar look…

The new version of the GFS is also similar but has two storms…

The GFS has the same look, but is, predictably, farther east…

The model does follow that up with another potent storm that unleashes brutal cold on the country…

The funny thing is… Something like that is totally plausible in the pattern taking shape. It’s uncanny how this is evolving in relation to the winter forecast and my analog years.

You’re really going to be hard pressed to ever find a colder look on the Ensembles than what they’re giving us over the next few weeks…

This is a pattern locking in for a prolonged stretch of harsh winter weather for much of the country.  Terms like “polar vortex” and “snowmageddon” will likely be thrown around by national media over the next 6 weeks or so. Book it. 😉

Another update comes your way this evening. Until then, I leave you with your Saturday afternoon tracking tools…

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Newtown Pike
Lexington

I-75/I-65 Northern Split Lexington

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Florence

No image available.

Covington

No image available.

No image available.

Louisville

No image available.

No image available.

Have a good one and take care.
30 Comments

Time posted: 2:31 am

Tracking Snow To Start Our Saturday

Good Saturday, folks. A round of snow is lifting northward across the state today, bringing accumulations to many areas. This band of snow will soon be replaced by another wave of precipitation that will be in the form of rain and snow later today into tonight.

Before we start things out with your morning tracking toys, here are a few thoughts to begin the day:

  • This band of snow is lifting into northern Kentucky through the morning.
  • Snowfall with goes from very little in the south to higher numbers in the north, especially areas of east-central Kentucky and north.
  • Some snow covered roads are likely early on.
  • As that band lifts our. temps rise above freezing for areas along and south of Interstate 64 by early afternoon.
  • Light rain takes over for the southern half of the state as the next wave moves in later today into tonight. This rain continues for areas south of 64 with rain and snow along the 64 corridor. More snow falls in the north.
  • Where does the evening and overnight band of accumulating snow set up across the northern half of the state? That may be a constant nowcast.
  • Most areas should see whatever is left switching to a little light snow on Sunday.

I will go more in depth on all that with updates later today and talk about a rather extreme winter pattern taking shape for much of the country.

European Model snowfall next 10 days (including today)…

GFS Ensembles for the next 2 weeks…

And the bitter cold coming…

I have you all set to track the early Saturday snows…

 

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Newtown Pike
Lexington

I-75/I-65 Northern Split Lexington

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway @ MP 36
Near Pine Ridge

Florence

No image available.

Covington

No image available.

No image available.

Louisville

No image available.

No image available.

No image available.

E-town

No image available.

I-65 MP 36
Near Bowling Green
I-65 MP 36

I-65 @ 234
Near Bowling Green
I-65 @ 234

Natcher Parkway MP 5
Near Bowling Green
Natcher Parkway @ MP 5

US 41A Gate 5 Fort Campbell Entrance
Fort Campbell
US 41A @ Gate 5

I-24  MP 4 @ US 60
Paducah
I-24 @ US 60 MP 4

I-24 MP 7 @ US 62
Paducah
I-24 MP 7 @ US62

Stay safe and take care.

43 Comments