Daily Archives: January 14, 2019

Time posted: 7:38 pm

Monday Evening Thoughts On What’s Ahead

Good evening, everyone. We have a heck of a storm system on the way to the region this coming weekend. It’s one that will bring a lot of precipitation our way and it’s likely to be in many forms. Significant amounts of rain, freezing rain and snow are all possible during this time.

Between now and then, periods of light snow and some freezing drizzle continue through Tuesday. Some very light accumulations continue to be possible. Another weak front may bring a rain or snow shower on Wednesday.

The Thursday system is mainly rain, but may start and end as a touch of frozen stuff.

That takes us to the weekend winter storm that is going to impact millions and millions of folks across the eastern half of the country, including here in Kentucky. This is a storm developing along a true arctic cold front that’s pressing across the state. The temperature gradient along this will be a sight to see.

The whole setup is going to produce heavy amounts of precipitation that can take on many forms. Flooding rains to significant snow and ice may show up across our region.

Let’s look at total precipitation through the weekend…

The European Model from WeatherBell is spitting out 3″-4″ of QPF (Rain and melted down snow and ice)…

The GFS has similar totals…

The Euro continues to have a significant freezing rain signal…

The GFS is much lighter with the ice…

I’m #teamGFS because no one wants ice!!

Snowfall amounts vary significantly from run to run as the models handle the arctic boundary differently. The European…

The GFS is much skimper…

But the earlier run had more…

The new version of the GFS is much closer to the European Model than the model it’s about to replace.

I mentioned the temperature trend is going to be nothing short of awesome to watch as arctic air slams in here. Check out the temperature trend on the European Model…

If you’re a true weather weenie of any kind, you have to be in awe of such a swing. Gusty winds will make it feel even colder.

After that system moves through, another winter storm may develop a few days later with another surge of arctic air Watch how little time there is between storms…

The temps behind that one…

Again,  this is the kind of pattern that produces legends for the country.

I’ll see you guys tonight for another blowout update. Enjoy the rest of your evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:39 pm

Monday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, folks. It’s a cold day across the bluegrass state as a few flakes fly from time to time. This same setup is with us for the next couple of days before we focus on two systems later this week into the weekend. The weekend system is likely to be a winter storm, bringing lots of different precipitation types to the state.

As mentioned, flakes will fly on and off through Wednesday. A touch of freezing drizzle may also show up during this time. Some light accumulations of both are possible.

The Thursday and early Friday system will zip right across the state from west to east. This will bring mainly rain with it, but some frozen stuff may show up at the state and the end…

How far south does the boundary behind that set up? That’s the big question over the next few days because the weekend winter storm is going to ride that boundary. The models go back and forth on the exact placement of the front and subsequent storm track.

Regardless, this storm is going to produce a lot of precipitation in our region. Anything from flooding rains to significant snow and ice, or all three, are possible Saturday and Sunday. It’s simply way too early to get more specific than that.

The latest GFS has a lot of rain and snow…

The Canadian Model is finally seeing the system in front of it better, so it’s slowly going toward what the GFS and European Models have been showing…

Given the arctic high pressure to the north and the amount of deep cold it’s bringing, a storm cutting through the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes does not seem like a very likely option. A more likely option is a low working toward southeastern Kentucky with another low popping to the east.

I will have updates later today. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 2:17 am

A Few Flakes Start The Week

Good Monday, everyone. The weekend winter storm that cut across the Ohio Valley is just the beginning of what is likely to become a very harsh winter pattern for much of the country. It’s a setup that is locking in for the long haul and it has a rather extreme look to it.

Let us begin with today and roll things forward. Low-level moisture is hanging tough and that means a few periods of light snow and flurries, especially central and eastern Kentucky. Patchy freezing drizzle is also possible and all this may cause some slick spots on area roads. Here’s regional radar, but much of this may not even show up on radars…

This low level moisture likely takes us into Tuesday with a few more flakes potentially flying around. That’s followed by a weak boundary dropping in from the northwest on Wednesday. This may have a mix of snow showers, rain showers and freezing drizzle with it…

Another system then rolls in from the west on Thursday, likely bringing a cold rain with it, but it may be a close call with a little frozen precipitation…

The ability of this system to pull down cold air behind it will be a big determining factor as to what happens with our weekend winter storm potential.

Winter weather lovers want that system to pull the boundary farther south into our region so the next storm follows along that front as it sags southeast.

This is exactly what the GFS shows

Obviously, that’s a big hitter in our region as arctic air surges in. If there’s snow or ice on the ground, it gets beyond frigid…

The new version of the GFS brings one low across Kentucky with a lot of rain and freezing rain, then brings a second low with snow. Bitter cold follows…

The Icon offers up a similar setup to the regular GFS…

The European Model has a ton of rain to a ton of freezing rain then some snow…

The Canadian Model is very weak with the Thursday system and it shows with how it handles the weekend storm. Notice the big differences from all the other models…

At this point, all precipitation options are on the table for the weekend. Heavy rain, sleet, freezing rain and snow or a combo of the 4. Once again, that’s about as much as I can tell you guys at this point.

I have a 4 day weekend away from work so I will throw random updates your way later today. Make it a good one and take care.

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