Daily Archives: January 18, 2019

Time posted: 7:35 pm

Winter Storm Threat This Weekend

Good evening, folks. A developing winter storm is rolling our way and is going to bring a wide variety of weather our way. This is a high impact storm that can cause local high water issues and bring icy and snow covered roads. Because of the high impact and the potential for some 4″+ snows to show up, let’s roll with a Winter Storm Threat.

A Winter Weather Advisory is already out for much of the state…

There’s a real chance to get some counties upgraded to a full blown Winter Storm Warning later tonight into Saturday.

A few fresh thoughts:

  • The first round of precipitation arrives late tonight into early Saturday. This is mainly heavy rain for much of the state, but far northern Kentucky is walking a fine line. This area is going to be close to the rain/snow/ice line. If they can stay south of that line… look out.
  • Flooding is possible on a local scale for Saturday.
  • Temps tomorrow hit the 50s and may hit 60 across parts of the southern half of the state. The north stays much colder.
  • That cold air dives in during the evening as our main low goes by to our southeast. That means a switch from rain to mix to snow from west to east.
  • A band of heavy snow may develop during this time. Several inches of snow will be possible within this band. I’m still not entirely sure where this sets up.
  • Temps drop through the 20s and into the teens Saturday night, leading to a flash freeze. All that water is really going to lead to some icy issues developing.
  • Wind gusts may top 40mph at times Saturday through Saturday night. Wind chills may drop below zero at times from Saturday night through Monday morning. Early Monday may also see actual air temps in the single digits, with the chance at zero in the north.

Here’s the First Call For Snowfall…

Those numbers are likely to go up with the next update tonight on WKYT-TV at 11.

The computer runs are still bouncing around a bit as they try to figure out the low pressure situation with this setup. The European Model has been the one consistent model in terms of track and precipitation amounts. Here’s the latest snow map from that run…

The Hi Res NAM is still jumping around with the low…

But, it’s back to producing a solid swath of snow…

The regular NAM is still putting too much emphasis on the lead low, but has some hefty totals for some…

The GFS is farther south than earlier runs and is trying to pop a second area of snow in the southeast…

The new version of the GFS offers snow for everyone…

I will update all this later tonight.

Looking farther down the road, another arctic front moves by Wednesday with a wave of low pressure along it. That’s likely to bring another round of winter weather our way. That’s another one with some decent potential…

After that comes arctic air with yet another storm threat next weekend. That one has a very interesting look to it with some parallels to the late 70s. The temperatures showing up next weekend are as cold as I’ve ever seen on medium range computer forecast models…

European Model…

GFS

Snow lovers should frame this 10 day snow map from the European Model…

Enjoy your evening and take care.

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