Daily Archives: January 18, 2019

Time posted: 7:35 pm

Winter Storm Threat This Weekend

Good evening, folks. A developing winter storm is rolling our way and is going to bring a wide variety of weather our way. This is a high impact storm that can cause local high water issues and bring icy and snow covered roads. Because of the high impact and the potential for some 4″+ snows to show up, let’s roll with a Winter Storm Threat.

A Winter Weather Advisory is already out for much of the state…

There’s a real chance to get some counties upgraded to a full blown Winter Storm Warning later tonight into Saturday.

A few fresh thoughts:

  • The first round of precipitation arrives late tonight into early Saturday. This is mainly heavy rain for much of the state, but far northern Kentucky is walking a fine line. This area is going to be close to the rain/snow/ice line. If they can stay south of that line… look out.
  • Flooding is possible on a local scale for Saturday.
  • Temps tomorrow hit the 50s and may hit 60 across parts of the southern half of the state. The north stays much colder.
  • That cold air dives in during the evening as our main low goes by to our southeast. That means a switch from rain to mix to snow from west to east.
  • A band of heavy snow may develop during this time. Several inches of snow will be possible within this band. I’m still not entirely sure where this sets up.
  • Temps drop through the 20s and into the teens Saturday night, leading to a flash freeze. All that water is really going to lead to some icy issues developing.
  • Wind gusts may top 40mph at times Saturday through Saturday night. Wind chills may drop below zero at times from Saturday night through Monday morning. Early Monday may also see actual air temps in the single digits, with the chance at zero in the north.

Here’s the First Call For Snowfall…

Those numbers are likely to go up with the next update tonight on WKYT-TV at 11.

The computer runs are still bouncing around a bit as they try to figure out the low pressure situation with this setup. The European Model has been the one consistent model in terms of track and precipitation amounts. Here’s the latest snow map from that run…

The Hi Res NAM is still jumping around with the low…

But, it’s back to producing a solid swath of snow…

The regular NAM is still putting too much emphasis on the lead low, but has some hefty totals for some…

The GFS is farther south than earlier runs and is trying to pop a second area of snow in the southeast…

The new version of the GFS offers snow for everyone…

I will update all this later tonight.

Looking farther down the road, another arctic front moves by Wednesday with a wave of low pressure along it. That’s likely to bring another round of winter weather our way. That’s another one with some decent potential…

After that comes arctic air with yet another storm threat next weekend. That one has a very interesting look to it with some parallels to the late 70s. The temperatures showing up next weekend are as cold as I’ve ever seen on medium range computer forecast models…

European Model…

GFS

Snow lovers should frame this 10 day snow map from the European Model…

Enjoy your evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:27 pm

Friday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. As we inch closer and closer to the weekend, the setup continues to feature everything we’ve been talking about all week. Heavy rain, gusty winds, mild temps, a major temp crash, flash freeze and some snow.

Here’s a breakdown of how things may play out…

  • Saturday features heavy rains of 1″-2″ with a local 3″ amount possible. That could cause some high water issues to develop.
  • Temps on Saturday may reach 60 in the south and southeast, but stay in the 30s in the far north. This is a mega temperature gradient.
  • Cold air rapidly sweeps in Saturday evening and that will cause a flash freeze. All that water will ice up quickly as temps hit the 20s then the teens.
  • A change to snow is also likely Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Some accumulations are a good bet. As of now, those look mainly on the light side, but a band of higher totals is going to try to sneak into the mix somewhere. I’m just not sure where, yet.
  • A First Call For Snowfall Map will be on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm.
  • Travel conditions go downhill quickly from Saturday evening through Sunday morning as roads become icy from the temp drop and some snows.
  • Highs on Saturday are in the upper teens to low 20s. Lows by Monday morning may reach the single digits.
  • Winds are going to be very gusty all weekend. That will lead to wind chills that may reach zero or below at times.

One of the things we are seeing with this storm system is the models really struggling on where to put the low or dual lows. To illustrate my point, just watch how the Hi Res NAM can’t figure out where to track the low. Check out how many jumps show up…

That looks like a ping pong ball and it’s something many of the models are trying to figure out. I still say we get two lows with a weak low working across the state Saturday, with the main low working south and east of that later in the day into Saturday night.

Until the models figure out where the lows go, you’re gonna see them continue to jump around with their rain and snow output numbers.

Here are the morning runs…

Hi Res NAM

NAM

GFS

Canadian

I’ll throw you another update later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 2:34 am

A Crazy Weekend Ahead

Good Friday, everyone. A developing winter storm is rolling our way and is poised to bring a little bit of wild and crazy weather to the bluegrass state. Heavy rain, high winds, a brief mild up, a major temp crash, a flash freeze and snow are all on the way… And that all happens in less than a 12 hour period.

I’ve talked about how the models were placing too much emphasis on the lead low and they should start to lose that and focus more on a low farther south. Most of the latest runs are doing just that, so you’re seeing them change their tune a bit in terms of the amount of winter weather potential.

Let’s begin with the first threat and that comes from the heavy rain. 1″-2″ rans show up for many, with some spots having a chance to push 3″…

That would lead to some local high water issues developing.

The farther south track of the low Saturday into Saturday night would argue for a better swath of snow working across the state.

The NAM is a little late in recognizing the low, so it only brings that snow to central and eastern Kentucky…

The Hi Res NAM gets it cranking much sooner and impacts much of the state with much more moisture…

The European Model is starting to develop a little more of a comma head look to that snow band…

The new version of the GFS is still seeing a little too much of the northern low, but the precipitation shield is showing how it’s sensing how the pressure falls showing up father south…

Then three is the soon to be replaced GFS. It’s slowly coming south, but it’s jumping too much energy on the lead low, forcing it to be the fastest and farthest north of the bunch…

The Canadian is coming south, but is still jumpy with the low…

It’s interesting to note how the JMA and UKMET were the first models to really latch on to the farther south low and they’re even a little farther south with the new runs…

JMA Saturday Evening

UKMET Saturday Evening-Sunday Morning..

So, let’s see how the models handle all this today before I put out a First Call Map. Obviously, accumulating snows will show up, it’s just a question of how much.

Regardless of how much of the white stuff falls, travel conditions will go downhill quickly Saturday evening through early Sunday as our flash freeze kicks in. All that water is going to ice up very quickly as temps drop through the 20s and into the teens. Throw just a little bit of snow on top of that and travel could get ugly at some point.

Wind chills will be near zero at times Saturday night into Sunday. Actual lows go way down Sunday night.

PS… The next arctic front arrives Wednesday and will have a storm developing along it.

I will have updates later today so check back. Have a good one and take care.

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