Daily Archives: January 22, 2019

Time posted: 6:59 pm

Rain To Snow Wednesday

Good evening, friends. It’s full steam ahead toward another fun weather day across the bluegrass state. It’s one that will take us on a similar ride to what happened Saturday, but shouldn’t be to that extreme. From there, a lot of winter weather shows up.

Let’s begin with Wednesday through Thursday morning system:

  • Rain moves in from west to east late tonight into early Wednesday. This is along and ahead of our cold front moving in.
  • Temps ahead of this front will reach the 50s across central and eastern Kentucky. Temps behind this crash through the 30s and into the 20s. That crash happens very quickly.
  • A period of mix to snow is likely as the cold hooks up with the back edge of the precipitation shield. With a wave of low pressure developing along this, the best snow potential is across the eastern half of the state.
  • Light accumulations are a good bet, with some pockets of higher totals showing up. This will be pretty slushy.
  • As temps drop, expect another flash freeze into the wee hours of Thursday morning. Delays and cancellations are very possible.

The Weather Prediction Center has much of central and eastern Kentucky in their low risk for 4″+ snows Wednesday night…

I can see that, but I’m gonna take the under…

The NAM has the over…

 

The Hi Res NAM

The GFS has a few spots approaching the 4″ plateau…

The Euro has a more consistent view…

Behind that, an arctic front arrives with snow showers Thursday evening into Thursday night. Lows may reach the single digits Friday morning with wind chills going below zero at times.

The pattern is loaded with systems this weekend into next week. Here’s the GFS with those…

I’ve talked about how a couple of these systems can blow up into something much bigger. You can see that on the GFS and on the European Model. Here’s the Monday night and Tuesday system…

Bitterly cold temps show up on the model behind that…

A few days later, we do it all over again…

Winter weather lovers should be smiling! 🙂

I will have an update on WKYT-TV at 11 and with my normal late night update. Have a wonderful evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:33 pm

Tuesday Afternoon Thoughts

Good afternoon, everyone. We continue to watch another winter weather maker rolling toward the state for later Wednesday and early Thursday. This kicks off a stretch featuring frequent winter weather makers impacting the weather across the region.

I have no real changes to how I think our system evolves. Rain moves in along and ahead of this front tonight into Wednesday. A major temperature drop takes place just behind the front, leading to a band of mix and snow developing. The best chance of this putting down some snow is across the central and eastern half of the state. Watch how this plays out on the GFS…

Here’s the area with the greatest potential to put some snow on the ground…

This is a situation where a heavier snow band shows up in spurts along the back edge of the precipitation shield. The exact locations of that won’t be known until we nowcast the cold catching up to the precip. You can see what I’m talking about on the models.

GFS

NAM

New version of the GFS

Short range Candian

Another band of light snow moves in with an arctic front Thursday night. Temps behind this are frigid and may hit the upper single digits in a few spots Friday morning with wind chills below zero.

Another system moves in with some snow on Saturday and Sunday, with additional systems waiting into next week…

GFS

New GFS

The pattern is just itching to amplify one of these systems and turn it into a much bigger storm. As I said last night, you may not see that until within a day or two of it happening.

I will have a First Call For Snowfall on WKYT starting at 4 and on KWC later this evening. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 2:19 am

Winter Weather Returns Late Wednesday

Good Tuesday, folks. Another winter weather maker is rolling toward Kentucky and will bring rain to a mix then snow later Wednesday. This starts a pattern of fast-moving winter weather makers through the weekend and into next week. Each system has the potential to produce snow and ushering arctic cold shots.

Temps today warm into the 40s on a gusty southwesterly wind as clouds thicken. These clouds are ahead of a cold front moving in for Wednesday. Rain develops ahead of this system, but a quick temperature drop behind the front means a period of mixed precipitation and snow. The models continue to disagree on exactly how the cold and the precipitation interact, but odds favor the eastern half of the state for the best potential for snow with this.

The European Model continues to show this well…

The GFS is similar…

The extreme models are the NAM and new version of the GFS. One has basically nothing, while the other continues to be on steroids…

NAM

New GFS

I’ll get you a risk map and first call out later today. Regardless of exact snow amounts, a quick drop in temps means icy roads will develop from Wednesday evening into early Thursday.

Another band of light snow or snow showers will arrive Thursday night along a weak arctic boundary. Another weak system may bring some light snow or flurries later Friday with another possible this weekend. The Canadian likes this one best…

The GFS and European Models are have that as more of a light snow event, with a bigger system following by later Monday and Tuesday…

That’s a lot of action over the next week and any one of those systems could amplify into something much deeper, but may not show up that way until a few days before.

Updates come your way later today. Make it a good one and take care.

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