Daily Archives: February 10, 2019

Time posted: 7:42 pm

Sunday Evening Update

Good evening, everybody. It’s full steam ahead toward another major rain event over the next few days. Several inches of rain will fall across the region, increasing the flood threat for the entire region.

Nothing has changed with the Flood Watch…

I still see no reason the rest of the state shouldn’t be included in this, but I digress.

My rainfall forecast appears to be in good shape…

 

This is backed up by the late day model runs…

GFS

New version of the GFS

Flooding of creeks, streams and rivers may all be noted during this time.

As that system moves away Tuesday night, much colder air wraps in bringing a brief period of light snow to central and eastern Kentucky.

From there, the pattern remains active, but we will se the storm track come farther south as cold air continues to spread out across the country.

The 2 week snow numbers from the GFS show the snow chances going  much farther south…

The average from the 21 member GFS Ensembles are even farther south…

I will have a full update later tonight, so check back. I leave you with your Sunday evening tracking toys…

Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 2:15 pm

Increasing Flood Threat

Good afternoon, folks. Our morning ice and snow continues to lift to the north as temps rise and rain takes over. Unfortunately, the rain is only going to increase over the next few days, leading to the increased potential for flooding and flash flooding.

I’ve made no changes to my rainfall forecast…

This is a widespread heavy rain event across the entire state, which should be under a flood watch. There’s no reason to leave southeastern Kentucky out of the watch, especially considering the recent flooding and mudslides this area has been seeing…

River flooding is likely to become a big issue in the coming days. These rivers are full and can’t hold more much more water, but that’s exactly what’s on the way.

Current forecasts take the Ohio River into Minor to moderate flooding…

Ohio River at Cincinnati

Ohio River at McAlpine Upper

Ohio River at Owensboro

Ohio River at Shawneetown

Again, depending on the amount of rain we get, those numbers may go even higher.

This system will finally depart late Tuesday as a wraparound period of snow develops behind it…

The next systems then target the region late week into the weekend, but those have colder air to work with…

The European Model is also showing the storm track moving much farther south, bringing snow chances to our region and farther south…

The GFS Ensembles continue to lead the way with increasing snow chances the next few weeks…

I will have another update this evening. Until then, let’s track an increase in the rain from southwest to northeast…

Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 1:59 am

Tracking A Wintry Mix Before Flooding

Good Sunday, everyone. A wintry mix is kicking off another super-active setup across our part of the world. It’s one that is likely to cause flooding issues to develop over the next few days. After that, there is an increasing signal of winter weather showing back up.

Let’s start with what’s going on today because it can cause issues. A mix of freezing rain, rain and snow develops this morning and slowly changes over to plain rain this afternoon from south to north. With a frozen ground, watch for a glaze of ice that can cause travel issues in many areas. Please use caution if you’re going to be traveling. Here’s regional radar to help you out…

I will get to the rest of your tracking tools in a bit.

Rounds of heavy rain kick this afternoon and will continue through Tuesday. Flood Watches are out for many areas during this time…

The entire state is at risk of seeing flooding during this time. I’m becoming more concerned for the potential for fairly widespread flooding problems developing later Monday into Tuesday. I’m upping the rainfall possibilities during this time…

Our creeks, streams and rivers are already running very high, so it’s not going to take much water to cause flooding issues to develop. If you have interests along our rivers, just know there is an increased threat for flooding in the days ahead.

Much colder air comes in behind this system late Tuesday into Tuesday night, leading to the possibility of some wraparound snows…

The next system arrives by the end of the week with another round of heavy rain then the chance for some snow. That unleashes the cold behind it…

The GFS Ensembles 2 week snow forecast continues to increase with each run…

I will have updates later today, so check beck. As promised, here are your tracking tools to start the day…

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Newtown Pike
Lexington

-75/I-64 Southern Split Lexington


Georgetown


I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway near Slade

Pine Mountain

Jenkins

Florence

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Covington

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Louisville

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E-town

No image available.

Bowling Green

Paducah

Have a good one and take care.

40 Comments