Daily Archives: February 16, 2019

Time posted: 2:31 pm

A Lot Of Rain Ahead

Good afternoon, folks. Our southern snow maker is long gone, leaving us with a nice afternoon across the entire region. This nice stuff is about to give way to another soggy setup that may cause additional flooding issues in the week ahead.

Before we get to that,  our swath of wet snow blanketed many areas across the southern half of the state early this morning. Snow totals ranged from a few inches with some hot spots of 4″-5″. Check out some of the tweets I got…

Most of the heaviest snow fell where there was not a Winter Weather Advisory in southeastern Kentucky. The National Weather Service in Jackson refused to issue one, even though the data was clear this would drop the most snow in their area.

I’m going to make a general statement targeted at no one… I’ve blown a lot of forecasts and will miss many more in the future, but I’ve never blown one simply because I wanted to be different than another forecast from someone I don’t like. There seems to be a lot of that in the entire weather world right now. The weather could care less about who we like or don’t like. 🙂

Moving along to a soggy setup. We will have another system moving in here tonight and Sunday, bringing the potential for a light mix to start. Heavy rain is possible in the southeast through the day, then colder air could bring a few flakes in for Monday.

From there, several systems target the region over the next week and change. The next one may begin with a touch of frozen stuff on Tuesday, but it’s another big rain maker. Two more systems then follow that up later in the week into next weekend. Rainfall totals will be way up there and will likely cause additional flooding issues…

New GFS

European

Significant flooding issues are possible over the next week to 10 days.

February continues to mimic last February and that’s not a good thing since it was the wettest February on record and led to significant flooding issues. The end of the last February started to change the pattern back to winter and that took is into a March that featured historic snowfall. Could the same happen this year?

The models are certainly pointing toward a similar pattern flip as February closes and March begins. Watch the cold finally get out of the west and roll east on the European…

The new version of the GFS goes all out with the cold from late month into early March…

No thanks! #teamspring

Have a great rest of your day and take care.

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