Daily Archives: February 28, 2019

Time posted: 7:33 pm

Updating The Weekend Potential

Good evening, everyone. Some areas are getting a taste of winter weather right now, but it’s full steam ahead toward a much bigger system for late this weekend. That’s a developing winter storm that puts our region in the crosshairs.

Before we get to that system, areas of northern Kentucky are getting in on a touch of winter weather. Some light snow accumulations are possible this evening…

As far as the weekend winter storm potential is concerned, here’s a rough timeline to get you started…

It’s still fairly early in the prognostication game, but here’s my latest risk map…

This will likely become a Winter Storm THREAT later tonight or Friday.

The late afternoon computer models continue to have some slight discrepancies. Here’s the GFS…

The new version of the GFS is a little farther south than earlier runs…

The Icon was much farther south…

The European Model continues to be the farthest north of any computer model, but it is a little farther south than prior runs:

I will update things on WKYT-TV tonight at 11 and then again later tonight here on KWC. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 12:20 pm

Thursday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on the light mix moving across the state today and the potential for a bigger winter weather impact this weekend. Confidence continues to increase that a developing winter storm will put snow down across parts of the bluegrass state.

Let’s begin with the light rain and mix rolling across the state today. This action picks up later in the day into the evening. Some pockets of freezing rain will be possible and there could even be a swath of light snow in the far north…

The weekend storm system has been fairly well behaved on the computer models over the past few days. Now, let’s hope they aren’t setting us up for a wild swing in the hours leading up to the storm system. šŸ™‚

This system is likely to become a THREAT for a large chunk of real estate, but I’m not ready to go there just yet. I am ready to throw you a snowfall odds map out…

Again, that all depends on the exact track of the low, so the risk areas may be shifted farther north or south. A First Call For Snowfall map is probably a day away still.

A quick check of the forecast models show most of them in pretty decent agreement…

GFS

New GFS

ICON

Canadian

Bitterly cold air follows whatever we get and we could even flirt with some records. Another system may bring winter weather our way later next week.

I will have the latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm and will drop by for another KWC update later this evening. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 2:02 am

Winter Weather Fights Back

Good Thursday, everyone. Much colder air has filtered back into the bluegrass state and it’s bringing some ugly weather with it. What we’re seeing today is just the beginning of a pattern that looks more like the heart of true winter than the beginning of meteorological spring.

That system on Sunday is a looker! I’ll get to that in a moment.

Let’s talk about the setup out there today. Temps are MUCH colder with readings in the 30s for many areas. Showers will develop from west to east and there’s the chance for some mixed precipitation in a few areas, especially across the north…

This system closes the door on February, with March trying to pull a repeat performer of what we went through last year. A VERY cold pattern is developing and likely takes control of the first two weeks of the month. This kicks off with a developing winter storm that MAY target Kentucky from Saturday night through Sunday night.

The exact impact of this for any one location is yet to be determined, but snow, rain or a combination of the two will be possible. All of this depends on the track of our storm.

The GFS continues to lay down a healthy snowfall for much of the state and region…

The Canadian Model continues to trend back to the south, bringing a healthy swath of snow to some…

The European Model is also coming back south with each passing run…

The ICON is in the camp of the GFS…

Speaking of the GFS,Ā most of theĀ individual members of the ENSEMBLES have a Kentucky hit…

If we expand our model arsenal, we find the UKMET with low pressure in a good spot for a Kentucky hit…

The farther north this low tracks, the better the chance for rain around here. The farther south it goes, the better the chance for snow.

I will put out a “best odds” map around noon today. Until then, make it a good one and take care.

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