Monthly Archives: April 2019

Time posted: 1:35 am

Summer Temps Then Spring Storms

Good Tuesday, everyone. It’s a surge of summer air taking control of our pattern for a few days, but showers and storms are getting ready to ramp up. This increase in showers and storms looks to hang tough right on into Kentucky Derby Weekend.

Temps out there today are deep into the 80s for much of the bluegrass state. I can’t rule out a scattered shower or storm going up, but most areas stay dry…

Wednesday looks even warmer with the potential for mid to upper 80s in some spots for parts of the region. That only happens with enough sunshine, but it’s certainly a possibility. Winds are going to crank during this time and a few late day showers and storms are possible. This is just ahead of a big severe weather outbreak to our west, but a few strong storms may try to sneak into western Kentucky. Here’s the Wednesday Severe Weather Outlook from the SPC…

Showers and thunderstorms will increase on Thursday and a few could be on the strong side. This begins a stormy period that goes through Oaks Day and into Derby Day…

The models are spitting out some decent totals during this time. The European Model has some 2″+ amounts  through Saturday…

The longer range European seasonal model that goes through the middle of June continues with a wet look for much of the country. Check out how much real estate is above normal…

That looks like a big severe weather maker of a spring taking shape. It also means true summer heat may have a very hard time again this summer. Sound familiar?

Have a great day and take care.

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Time posted: 1:21 am

Derby Week Starts Warm and Ends Wet

Good Monday, everyone. It’s Kentucky Derby Week in the bluegrass state and that means the forecast takes on a little extra significance. As we kick off the big week, summer temps are surging in here, bringing a storm or two with them. Unfortunately, storm chances increase later in the week and some of those may linger into the bigger weekend.

Temps today warm deep into the 70s with an 80 possible in the south and west. A shower or storm may also go up as southwesterly winds usher in the warmth…

Temps for Tuesday and Wednesday will feel more like Mid-Summer than the transition days from April into May…

I can’t rule out a few spots sneaking into the middle and upper 80s if they can get enough sunshine.

A scattered shower or thunderstorm will be possible with the best chance coming Wednesday. That kicks off a rather stormy look to the pattern for Thursday into Kentucky Oaks Day Friday. I mentioned the potential for the system producing the storms to slow down and some of the models are hinting at this. The European Model keeps a storm chance going into Derby Day…

The GFS is now on board…

I wouldn’t be surprised to see this setup carry us into next week as we see one heck of a clash of air masses setting up across the country. Look at the temperature departure forecast for the next 10 days…

That looks and awful lot like the departure map from this past winter as the crazy cold just could never get into the lower Ohio Valley.

Have a great day and take care.

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Time posted: 2:05 am

A Brief Surge Of Summer Temps Ahead

Good Sunday, everyone. Here’s hoping this update finds each of you living life to the absolute fullest. It’s a seasonally chill wind blowing as we wrap up the weekend, but a surge of summer is on the way for part of the week ahead. That week ahead is, of course, Kentucky Derby week and it will have some late week changes show up.

Let us begin with today. A cold front is pressing across eastern Kentucky and is bringing a few early day showers…

That action moves away very quickly, leaving behind a mix of sun and clouds to go along with cool temps. Highs stay in the upper 50s and low 60s for many with gusty winds making it feel even cooler.

Monday brings a big temperature turnaround as reading soar deep into the 70s. Winds become southwesterly and that could help fire up a few showers and thunderstorms.

Temps by Tuesday and Wednesday will have a definite summer feel and look to them…

A storm or two is possible during this time, especially on Wednesday. Boomers will increase as slow-moving system rolls our way. The models are struggling on when this system gets out of town, with the GFS keeping it going through Kentucky Oaks Day…

As of now, the trend is for a dry and seasonally cool Kentucky Derby Day. That said, we need to watch that system to make sure it isn’t slower than the models are indicating. Also, that’s an interesting looking disturbance heading into the Bahamas for this time of year.

Enjoy your Sunday and take care.

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