Daily Archives: July 1, 2019

Time posted: 1:25 am

A Booming 4th Of July Week

Good Monday and welcome to July. The new month is kicking off in similar fashion with steamy temps and a few storms on the move. The stormy weather looks to increase as we head into the long 4th of July holiday period as we go back into a rather soggy looking setup.

Let’s begin with what’s going on out there today. It’s the same as before. 🙂 Any storm that goes up may be strong or locally severe, producing torrential rains. Outside the action, it’s toasty.

Here are your storm tracking tools for this first day of the new month…

The shower and thunderstorm action looks to increase in the coming days and that should roll right on through the 4th of July weekend. Storms will come at us in waves, with the potential to put down quite a bit of rain. Here’s the GFS rainfall forecast through Sunday…

Let’s add the next week’s worth of rain to the mix…

Those are some hefty two week rain totals, but that no longer comes as a shock to anyone living in this region.

Over the past week, I’ve posted some seasonal models for your amusement. As we look at some additional seasonal models that take us through the rest of summer and through fall and winter, we find a familiar theme. The CFSv2 is usually a very warm biased model across North America, so to see a lot of normal or cool showing up is very interesting.

Here’s how the model sees the three month period from July through September…

You can see a lot of normal to cooler than normal showing up in the means. As the model goes out farther in time, it becomes more generalized, but you can see a continuation of this setup for the fall ahead…

The winter that follows appears to suggest a big ridge along the west coast with a trough in the east…

Again, that’s an interesting signal considering the model is typically warm biased for most of North America.

Make it a great day and take care.

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