Monthly Archives: August 2019

Time posted: 1:48 am

Tracking A Few Storms and Hurricane Dorian

Good Saturday, everyone. A weak cold front is nearing the region, bringing the potential for a few showers and storms over the Labor Day Weekend. While we are tracking a few storms, folks across the southeastern seaboard are on full alert because of Hurricane Dorian. The track continues to shift, potentially taking this farther up the coast toward the Carolinas.

Let’s begin with the weather here in the bluegrass state. It’s a very warm and rather humid day as scattered storms go up. Obviously, not everyone is going to see showers and storms today, but a few strong storms can’t be ruled out. Here are your radars to help you out…

Let’s hope those stay away from your outdoor activities today.

A similar setup will be noted for Sunday into Labor Day.

Hurricane Dorian continues to be a monster of a storm as it heads toward the Bahamas…

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/CAR/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-CAR-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif

We continue to see a definitive trend showing up on the models for this storm to curve northward up the east coast of Florida and toward the Carolinas. The National Hurricane Center forecast has been trending in this direction…

cone graphic

Here are the latest Hurricane Model forecasts…

The GFS Ensembles…

The operational models are also strongly going in that direction. Here’s the overnight GFS…

Canadian

That’s a very, very bad trend for the Carolinas!

The models do bring a deep trough behind that departing hurricane, delivering a shot of cool to the country…

Canadian

GFS

Have a great Saturday and take care.

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Time posted: 1:46 am

Eyeing A Weak Front and Hurricane Dorian

Good Friday, everyone. Our long Labor Day Weekend is kicking off with a weak cold front approaching the state from the north. This boundary will try to hang around into the next few days, but the big weather story is Hurricane Dorian. This storm is becoming another monster and has a chance to influence our weather.

Let’s begin with today and roll forward. Temps are in the 80s with a mix of sun and clouds. Those clouds may be thicker across the north as this front near. It could also spit out a shower or storm late today into the evening…

This boundary slips a littler farther south on Saturday, bringing that small chance for a shower or storm with it and that looks to continue through Labor Day…

The big weather story is Hurricane Dorian that continues to churn toward the Bahamas and Florida. This storm is growing into a monster…

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/CAR/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-CAR-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif

With high pressure building to the north of Dorian, this storm will start to bend more west over the next few days. Here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center…

cone graphic

This storm reminds me a lot of Hurricane Andrew from 1992. I’m not saying it gets quite to that level or gets as far west as Andrew did, but it looks may look the part as it approaches Florida.

Here are the latest Hurricane Model forecasts…

The GFS Ensembles…

The latest operational models are of similar thinking with this powerful storm turning more north once into Florida, then working along the southeastern seaboard…

GFS

Canadian

The post-landfall track is still very much up in the air, but the track toward Florida isn’t. That’s just a very unsettling look, folks.

Make it a great day and take care.

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Time posted: 1:54 am

The Tropics Flex Some Muscle

Good Thursday, everyone. We have another awesome weather day in store for the region, but the tropics are taking control of the setup in the coming days. This will have an, at least, indirect impact on our weather as we roll through the first week of September.

Temps out there today are pretty awesome so enjoy.

A weak cold front drops into the state from the north late Friday into Saturday and could hang around into Sunday. That doesn’t have very much moisture with it, but it could produce a shower or thunderstorm during this time. The best chance is across the northern half of the state…

That front may also mean a bit of a temperature gradient setting up from north to south, depending on just how far south it can get.

That may be determined by Hurricane Dorian as it continues to on collision course with Florida. This is now forecast to become a major hurricane making landfall in the Sunshine State over Labor Day Weekend…

cone graphic

Here are the latest Hurricane Models…

The GFS Ensembles forecast tracks…ThatThat

That could be a devastating hit for Florida from the east, with even a potential second landfall if it can emerge over the eastern Gulf. Obviously, the farther west it gets, the better the chance it would have of impacting our weather next week.

Some of the operational models are close…

GFS

Canadian

Temps ahead of landfalling tropical systems can get pretty steamy around here, so that’s certainly something to watch for early next week.

Have a great day and take care.

10 Comments