Monthly Archives: September 2019

Time posted: 7:24 pm

Go, Go, Euro

Good evening, folks. I wanted to drop by to talk about the upcoming pattern and the big change that’s on the way. We know it’s finally going to feel like fall by Friday, but we are really searching for much needed rainfall and the European Model continues to be our focus.

Before getting into that, we are launching a weather podcast at WKYT. The cover photo is reason enough to give it a listen…

This model has really been going all in on rain from Sunday through early next week. This afternoon’s run took it to the extreme developing a winter looking system. Check out the huge cutoff low on the model…

It brings a front in here late Sunday and Monday, slows it down then let’s a monster storm system develop along the boundary…

That’s one heck of a storm system the model is showing and would give us a lot of rain, gusty winds and chilly temps.

Rainfall from this run could actually be troublesome…

Is the European Model overblown? Odds strongly favor it being too strong with this overall setup, but in this extreme setup we’re in, anything is possible.

Make it a great evening and take care.

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Time posted: 1:50 am

More Heat Before Big Changes

Good Monday, everyone. Our historic September is wrapping up on a hot and mainly dry note across the bluegrass state. That’s an appropriate ending to what is likely the hottest and driest September on record for many cities. This will even go down as the driest month in recorded history for some. That’s beyond astounding when you step back and think about it.

As we get ready to flip the calendar to October, the heat hangs on for a few days, but big time changes show up later this week into the weekend. Those changes will bring more traditional fall temps in here and will also up our rain chances.

Let’s begin with today and roll forward. Highs are back into the 90s and a few records may fall. There continues to be the smallest chance for a popup shower or storm…

October arrives on Tuesday with more of the same and that continues through Wednesday. By Thursday, a fall cold front shows up from northwest to southeast and that may will have a stout temperature gradient along it. Check out the Thursday afternoon temp map…

There’s also the small chance for a shower or storm as the cooler air surges in, but it’s the temperature drop that is the main story. Readings by Friday morning may be deep into the 40s…

There’s a chance for highs to stay in the 60s on Friday as we get ready for another chilly morning on Saturday…

That brings us to the next system that has one heck of a look to it. It’s another cold front dropping in, but the models are very robust with this front and low pressure along it. This boundary may even pull up some tropical juice from the Gulf.

The European Model is exactly what the drought doctor ordered from late Sunday through Tuesday…

The rain numbers from this run…

Obviously, that would almost have to get something from the Gulf into it to produce those totals, so let’s not go cray cray. See kids, I’m hip! 😉

The GFS is also offering up some kind numbers…

That would be another shot of typical fall chill behind that system, regardless of how much rain it can give us.

There’s a chance I throw you guys another update later today, so check back. Until then, make it a great Monday and take care.

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Time posted: 2:09 am

Pattern Change Late Next Week

Good Sunday, folks. As our record setting heat continues across the Commonwealth, fairly dramatic changes are showing up in the pattern next week. That change will likely take us into a more typical fall setup, with an increase in cold fronts being able to penetrate the eastern part of the country. Woot!

Let’s begin with today and roll forward. It’s hot.. This much we know. It’s also mainly dry… This much we know. That said, there can still be a few popup showers and storms this afternoon and evening. Regional radar will sniff those out for ya…

Record highs will likely continue to be set through the first two days of October. Temps will be well into the 90s during this time, with possibly the hottest temps ever recorded for so late in the year. I’ve prepped you guys for this for nearly 2 weeks now, so it shouldn’t come as a shock.

A fall cold front sweeps in here on Thursday as the overall pattern starts to shake it up. This should bring a few showers and storms in here, but it doesn’t look like a lot of rain by any means. Behind this front comes a taste of the good stuff into the first weekend of October…

A deeper system looks to move in behind that by next Sunday and Monday, bringing another rain chance and even chillier air…

It’s refreshing to see the pattern finally moving again, but I still think October skews warmer than normal as a whole. The European Weeklies have had the hot hand of late, pun intended. They were all over this hot and dry period well ahead of anything else. They keep us warmer than normal into early November, but nowhere near like what we’ve been seeing. They also show an uptick in precipitation amounts as October wears on, so that’s some good news.

In terms of snow potential across the country, they are showing the potential for early November action into the Ohio Valley. Here’s what the next 45 days worth of flakes look like across the country…

Those are always fun to look at, but never take those verbatim, Still, the can offer clues to a pattern setting up across the country.

Have a great Sunday and take care.

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