Daily Archives: September 30, 2019

Time posted: 7:24 pm

Go, Go, Euro

Good evening, folks. I wanted to drop by to talk about the upcoming pattern and the big change that’s on the way. We know it’s finally going to feel like fall by Friday, but we are really searching for much needed rainfall and the European Model continues to be our focus.

Before getting into that, we are launching a weather podcast at WKYT. The cover photo is reason enough to give it a listen…

This model has really been going all in on rain from Sunday through early next week. This afternoon’s run took it to the extreme developing a winter looking system. Check out the huge cutoff low on the model…

It brings a front in here late Sunday and Monday, slows it down then let’s a monster storm system develop along the boundary…

That’s one heck of a storm system the model is showing and would give us a lot of rain, gusty winds and chilly temps.

Rainfall from this run could actually be troublesome…

Is the European Model overblown? Odds strongly favor it being too strong with this overall setup, but in this extreme setup we’re in, anything is possible.

Make it a great evening and take care.

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Time posted: 1:50 am

More Heat Before Big Changes

Good Monday, everyone. Our historic September is wrapping up on a hot and mainly dry note across the bluegrass state. That’s an appropriate ending to what is likely the hottest and driest September on record for many cities. This will even go down as the driest month in recorded history for some. That’s beyond astounding when you step back and think about it.

As we get ready to flip the calendar to October, the heat hangs on for a few days, but big time changes show up later this week into the weekend. Those changes will bring more traditional fall temps in here and will also up our rain chances.

Let’s begin with today and roll forward. Highs are back into the 90s and a few records may fall. There continues to be the smallest chance for a popup shower or storm…

October arrives on Tuesday with more of the same and that continues through Wednesday. By Thursday, a fall cold front shows up from northwest to southeast and that may will have a stout temperature gradient along it. Check out the Thursday afternoon temp map…

There’s also the small chance for a shower or storm as the cooler air surges in, but it’s the temperature drop that is the main story. Readings by Friday morning may be deep into the 40s…

There’s a chance for highs to stay in the 60s on Friday as we get ready for another chilly morning on Saturday…

That brings us to the next system that has one heck of a look to it. It’s another cold front dropping in, but the models are very robust with this front and low pressure along it. This boundary may even pull up some tropical juice from the Gulf.

The European Model is exactly what the drought doctor ordered from late Sunday through Tuesday…

The rain numbers from this run…

Obviously, that would almost have to get something from the Gulf into it to produce those totals, so let’s not go cray cray. See kids, I’m hip! 😉

The GFS is also offering up some kind numbers…

That would be another shot of typical fall chill behind that system, regardless of how much rain it can give us.

There’s a chance I throw you guys another update later today, so check back. Until then, make it a great Monday and take care.

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