Monthly Archives: October 2019

Time posted: 12:02 pm

Wednesday Midday Update

Good afternoon, folks. Rounds of heavy rain and some thunder continue to work across the Commonwealth, but the focus is on a wild Halloween. A major temperature crash is on the way and this will give some areas the first taste of winter weather before the big day is finished.

Today’s rain comes at us in waves and we’ve already seen some areas with well over 1″ of rain. Local high water issues will be possible.

The cold air on Halloween continues to show up faster and faster. Watch how quickly the numbers drop into the 30s from west to east, with the 20s showing up Thursday night…

And those wind chills continue to look brutal…

As far as the chance for flakes is concerned, we continue to see this potential showing up a little better as we get closer. Watch the flakes fly on the Hi Res NAM…

Here are the areas the model thinks has a little snow flying at some point…

Again, it would just be a few flakes. but it’s awesome to see this early.

I will have another update later today, so check back. I leave you with your rain tracking toys…

Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 2:16 am

Tracking Our Wild Halloween Setup

Good Wednesday to one and all. Our Halloween Howler kicks off today with the first waves of rain and thunderstorms. From there, things get interesting for Halloween as temps plummet, potentially setting the stage for a snowflake or two by evening.

Let’s start with what’s going on today and roll forward. A few rounds of showers and thunderstorms will roll across the state, but it’s not raining the entire day. You will get some breaks in the action.

The severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center only has a very low end risk across the south and southeast…

I will get to your tracking tools in a bit.

Gusty showers and thunderstorms will be with us tonight and into early on Halloween, but our monster of a storm system and cold front will soon take center stage. A more than 30 degree temp drop is likely during the daylight hours on Thursday as the front moves through. Central and eastern Kentucky will be in the 60s to near 70 in the morning with the west in the 30s. Temps then drop into the 30s from west to east during the day and then into the 20s Thursday night…

When we add the wind to the mix, you get some stupid cold wind chill numbers…

Ouch!

Can we get a few snowflakes to mix in at some point on Halloween? That’s, at least, a possibility for some. Here’s the Hi Res NAM…

The Canadian continues to have a little better coverage of flake potential…

Again, this would only be a few flakes if we get them.

This weekend finds another cold front dropping in, bringing reinforcing cold air. This is a very cold pattern developing for the new month and we will have to be on guard for clippers that can dig into the region, starting later next week. The models continue to sniff this potential out…

This is a setup that can bring accumulating snows at some point before Thanksgiving.

I will have additional updates later today, so check back. I leave you with your rain and storm tracking tools…

Make it a great day and take care.

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Time posted: 7:51 pm

Updating The Storm Ahead

Good evening, folks. Our big storm system is getting closer and closer and is going to have a major impact on our weather for Wednesday and Halloween. This will bring a lot of different weather to the region, with heavy rain, strong storms, gusty winds, crashing temps and an outside chance for a few snowflakes.

Let’s review the headlines…

  • Heavy rain and thunderstorms roll in on Wednesday and continue through Thursday as a few waves of low pressure move through.
  • The main low works right on top of us Halloween
  • Heavy rainfall of 1″-3″ will be possible across the entire state.
  • Wind gusts of greater than 30mph-40mph will be likely.
  • A few strong to severe storms are also possible starting Wednesday afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has us in a Marginal Risk for severe storms…

  • Temps crash from west to east on Halloween. We will be in the 60s during the morning with the 30s by late afternoon and early evening. Check out the temp trend from 8am Thursday through 11pm Thursday evening…
  • Wind chill temps will be even colder and absolutely frigid for this time of year…
  • There continues to be a small chance for the cold air to catch the back edge of the departing rain shield by Halloween evening. That could bring a few flakes of snow mixing in with the rain across central and eastern Kentucky. The Hi Res NAM continues to see a couple of flakes…

The Canadian sees a little better chance…

So does the GFS…

So, there are multiple models spitting out the first flakes of the season. Again… It would just be a few flakes if we get them, but that’s still pretty awesome to see.

I will see you guys for another update later tonight. Make it a good one and take care.

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