Daily Archives: October 4, 2019

Time posted: 8:04 pm

Friday Evening Update

Good evening, gang. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on the big rainmaker on the way to our region. This will blow into town on Sunday, with the heaviest rain waiting to arrive Sunday night into Monday. This is all part of a totally different weather pattern than the one we’ve been in for a long time.

Let’s get into this rain evening because there’s the chance some areas get too much of a good thing. Scattered showers and storms go up late Saturday night into Sunday, with the main action arriving after that. Widespread rain and thunderstorms go up Sunday night into Monday and could put down more than 2″-3″ in some areas of central and eastern Kentucky.

The models are in pretty good agreement on the potential for excessive rains…

GFS

European

As crazy as this sounds, local flash flooding is possible Sunday night and Monday morning. That would be a heck of a way to bust a short-term drought!

Highs on Monday may not get out of the 50s across the eastern half of the state as the clouds and rain are slow to move out.

Tuesday through Thursday look pretty darn awesome ahead of another very potent front by the end of the week…

That kind of front could even spawn high winds and strong storms as it crashes in here, with a legitimate frost/light freeze threat behind it next weekend.

Since the middle of September, I’ve thrown around the 1939 analog and it appears to be playing out. Remember that as we head into late October. 😉

I’ll see you guys with my normal update late tonight. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 2:35 am

Tracking Fall Temps and Possible Soaking Rains

Good Friday, folks. FINALLY!!!!!!!!!!! That’s what many of us are saying across the state today as fall temperatures have arrived. This is a total pattern change that will also lead us into a pretty wet setup by Sunday and Monday, with another front with even colder air in about a week.

Let’s begin with today and roll forward. Temps in the north may struggle to 70 with partly sunny skies. The rest of the state generally tops out in the low and middle 70s. Winds will be breezy and that will set the stage for a crisp evening for high school football fans.

Saturday starts in the 40s for many and ends with gusty winds from the southwest. That boosts temps as clouds begin to increase. Those clouds are ahead of a slow-moving cold front arriving on Sunday. Widespread rain and thunderstorms look to increase. A nice soaking is possible for many areas as the computer models continue to spit out some nice totals.

The GFS and European Models are now very similar with stripes of greater than 2″ rains showing up..

GFS.

European

Temps will be seasonally chilly through the first half of next week with a few days in the 60s for highs. Lows will be down to the low 40s on a few occasions, with the potential for some of the first upper 30s to show up in some of the colder valleys.

A potent cold front moves in here by the end of next week and should bring more rain ahead of an even chillier shot of air. That could bring us frost or light freeze threat behind it.

This active pattern has another benefit besides temps because it does bring an increase in rainfall. The average of the Ensembles shows above normal rain over the next few weeks…

I’ll throw you another update later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

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