Daily Archives: October 6, 2019

Time posted: 6:09 pm

Flash Flood Threat Increasing

Good evening, everybody.Torrential rain producing showers and thunderstorms continue to crank and this will likely be an issue through early Monday. The setup is there for flash flooding across parts of the region as repeat storms move over the same areas.

Here’s a rough look at the flash flood risk…

I will not be surprised some areas to pick up more than 5″ of rain out of this particular setup. No, that doesn’t mean everyone sees that much rain or get enough rain to cause flooding issues, but the current trend is worrisome. Given the rock hard ground, the rain may fall faster than it can soak in. Flash Flood Guidance values are useless and I hope our NWS friends see this and stick a watch out.

Here are your Sunday evening soaking rain trackers…

Clouds and a few showers may linger across the southeast Monday night into Tuesday. Farther north and west, clouds will clear and temps could drop into the upper 30s and low 40s for some by Tuesday morning…

Our next system is set to impact the region by the end of the week in the form of a very strong fall cold front. This boundary will bring gusty winds, showers and thunderstorms and a major temp drop…

Watch the super-duper temperature drop that may bring a weekend frost threat…

Have a great evening and take care.

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Time posted: 2:02 am

Heavy Rain and Storms Increase

Good Sunday, everyone. After a history making stretch of dry weather, much needed rain is arriving across the bluegrass state. As a matter of fact, heavy rain and thunderstorms may put down enough rain to cause local high water issues later tonight and early Monday.

All of this is part of a totally different weather pattern that is actually skewed normal or a touch colder than normal through much of the rest of the month.

Let’s start with the big rain event that’s just getting started. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be noted today, but the widespread rain and storm action develops this evening and goes into Monday. The greatest risk for significant rainfall is across central and eastern Kentucky, with lighter amounts in the far north and west. Still, most everyone should see beneficial rains.

Here’s a look at what I’m currently expecting…

Local high water issues could develop tonight and early Monday in areas getting in on thunderstorms. Speaking of thunderstorms, there’s even an outside chance for a strong or local severe boomer. Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center…

Here are your Sunday tracking tools…

Temperatures on Monday should stay in the 50s for the eastern half of the state, so that qualifies as a full blown…

Lows by Tuesday morning are generally in the low and mid 40s, but a pocket of upper 30s will be possible in the colder valleys.

I can see a scenario where far southeastern Kentucky gets in on a shower or two Tuesday, but the Tuesday-Thursday period looks pretty darn awesome. Seasonally chilly mornings and mild afternoons make for some perfect fall days.

As all this nice weather is happening here, a major storm is meandering off the east coast. That system will dictate the exact timing on our late week cold front blowing through here. This major fall front will feature a line of showers and storms, gusty winds and a big time temp drop in a short amount of time…

Readings behind this will likely head deep into the 30s, bringing a frost and light freeze threat to much of the region.

Some of those models even take a touch of snow all the way to the Texas Panhandle! Wow.

Speaking of snow, the European Ensembles are showing the first flakes in the high ground of the Appalachian Mountains in West Virginia over the next few weeks…

I’ll see you with another update later today, so check back. Until then, have a great Sunday and take care.

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