Daily Archives: October 16, 2019

Time posted: 1:44 am

Cold Air Crashes Back In

Good Wednesday to one and all. Our cold front continues to push to the east, allowing for colder air to settle back into the bluegrass state. This continues to be part of the overall pattern that is very active and looks to throw even colder air in here for the final two weeks of October. There are even some hints of winter showing up.

Let’s start with today and roll forward. Showers and storms are with us very early on, especially across the east. This action will move away by late morning, but low clouds will swing back in from the north and northwest through the afternoon. I can’t rule out a few showers coming from those low clouds.

Here’s regional radar to track the action:

Because of the sun verses clouds thing, temps may be all over the place at any one time during the day, but everyone should come down in the afternoon. Temps this afternoon may range from the upper 40s to middle 50s. Location, location, location.

Gusty winds will make it feel much colder, especially when the clouds return. The clouds thing may continue to be an issue over the next few days and that’s going to play a big role in our temperatures, especially at night. Lows by Thursday morning will drop deep into the 30s with clear skies, but stay near 40 with clouds.

Thursday looks like a crisp fall day with a mix of sun and clouds and temps generally in the 50s. Can we completely clear the skies out Thursday night? If we do, a freeze would be possible as temps drop to freezing or below for many. The NAM fam has temps dropping well into the 20s for some spots…


The Hi Res NAM is even colder…

Those numbers are likely too cold, but it gives you an indication that we could see, at least, a light freeze.

The weather for Friday and Saturday looks great as temps recover toward the 70s by Saturday. Clouds will increase late in the day as moisture streams in from a possible tropical system in the Gulf. That system may bring us some rain by Sunday.

The main storm system will roll in here by the time we hit Monday. This powerful plains storm will drag another front through here and this one may have high winds and strong storms with it…

Much colder air sweeps quickly back in behind that boundary.

If you’ve been reading for a while, you know I’ve really been trying to lock in on late October for some potential fun in fall. The analogs I came up with back in September first clued me in to the possibility, then the overall pattern started to evolve in that direction. Now, the computer forecast models are showing a little something with just about each run.

These are some deep and anomalous troughs showing up for the rest of October..

That’s a signal for much colder than normal temps, but can we get more than just cold out of it? Maybe.

Each run of the GFS from the past several days has been showing a touch of winter. The latest was no different…

We shall see, but it’s pretty amazing to see these signals matching up with those analogs I showed you guys back in September.

I will try to update later today, but I have a few things going on that may prevent me from doing so.

Enjoy the day and take care.