Daily Archives: October 20, 2019

Time posted: 7:34 pm

Sunday Night Look Ahead

Good evening, folks. We are putting the wraps on your weekend with some pretty nice weather throughout the Commonwealth. This looks to change quickly on Monday as a strong cold front sweeps in with some big time thunderstorms rumbling through.

The focus continues to be on the potential for a few strong to severe storms. The Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight the region in a Marginal Risk for severe storms…

Damaging wind is the main threat, but heavy amounts of rain will also be possible for some. Local 1″-2″ totals will be possible for some.

Cold air comes in behind this system for Tuesday as gusty winds add to the chill. Wednesday and Thursday look pretty darn nice, then we wait to see what happens with the late week/weekend system.

As we’ve talked about, the models are struggling with how to handle this feature. We find the European Model and the GFS Model both showing their well known biases, which are polar opposite of one another.

The European Model often holds too much energy back to our southwest, but it has been consistent in doing so with the upcoming storm. That makes for a major, slow-moving storm system that brings chilly, heavy rains and gusty winds…

This run of the Euro shows a lot of rain over the next 7 days…

While the European Model often holds too much energy back, the GFS is often way too progressive in this type of setup. Look at the night and day difference from the above Euro…

The European also appears to be doing the same with the next system early next week. It appears to be too slow with ejecting the energy to the east, but you can get an idea of the arctic air diving into the country and spreading east…

That’s absolutely brutal cold for this time of year, even for the Rockies!

Meanwhile, we see the GFS being flatter with the arctic air as it moves east, allowing for winter looking systems along the boundary…

This is a full blown winter looking pattern evolving for much of the country for the final week or so of October and into early November.

I will see y’all later tonight. Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 1:57 am

Strong Storms Possible Monday

Good Sunday to one and all.With a few showers slowly exiting the region, we start to focus on a potent cold front  moving in here, bringing the potential for strong to severe storms.  This will be ahead of a pattern that threatens to get winter off to a very early start across the country.

Let’s begin with today and roll forward. Temps are in the mild side with highs in the 70s southwesterly winds will be gusty. As the remnants of Nestor continue to quickly pull away to our east and northeast, some early showers are possible in the east…

A powerful storm system is working from the plains into the western Great Lakes today into Monday. That drags our cold front into the state, bringing a rapid increase in showers and storms. These storms are likely to be strong and may even go severe, with damaging wind the main threat. The Storm Prediction Center has us in the risk area for Monday…

Heavy rains will be a good bet, with some 1″-2″ amounts potentially showing up…

A chilly and windy Tuesday will be noted behind this front with temps in the 50s. The weather for Wednesday looks pretty good, but from there we watch our next system rolling in here by the end of the week. That system continues to show up differently on each run and that’s to be expected with a pretty anomalous pattern for late October.

Here’s the overnight run of the GFS…

The Canadian…

The systems coming in behind that for the final week of October into early November will grow even colder and have a shot at producing some early season winter weather across much of the country. We will touch more on that with my next update later today.

Make it a great day and take care.

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