Daily Archives: October 22, 2019

Time posted: 7:43 pm

Tuesday Evening Update

Good evening, everyone. We are wrapping up a fantastic fall day and we have a few more ahead of us. From there, things continue to look very wet for the weekend as a storm rolls in from the southwest. This is part of a busy late October setup that likely rolls into early November, but with a little bit of a change. There’s an increasing chance for more of a winter looking pattern setting up.

Let’s focus on the weekend setup as we now have just about every model on board with what the Euro and Canadian have been showing for several days. The one holdout? Yep… the GFS. Bless it.

Here’s the European Model for Friday night through Sunday…

The only correction we’ve been seeing with the Euro is the one we talked about. It holds on to energy too long as it comes from the southwest, so the timing of this system is speeding up.

That could be another widespread soaker of a rainstorm…

The Canadian is similar to the Euro, but it’s a little quicker…

The impact from this system should show up as early as Friday evening, but should be gone by Sunday afternoon.

Arctic cold air will keep pushing into the Rockies and plains then pressing east into the middle of next week. This could fire up a developing storm along this arctic air. That’s exactly what the Canadian is showing…

Can this setup bring our part of the world a very early touch of winter? MAYBE. Obviously, a lot has to happen to produce flakes in October, but the pattern suggests it has, at least, an outside chance. I keep going back to the analogs I threw out back in September and the progression of October is following a couple of those very closely.

As I look into November, I think… Hmmm, very interesting. 🙂

Have a great evening and take care.

1 Comment

Time posted: 2:03 am

Watching The Weekend and Beyond

Good Tuesday, everyone. We have a much colder wind blowing across the Commonwealth today as our cold front continues to push to our east. This is bringing in a seasonal chill and some very nice weather for the next few days. But, the system moving our way by the weekend continues to be a pain in the keester.

Let’s begin with today and roll forward. Temps may not make it out of the 50s for many areas with a gusty wind making it feel colder. The day may start with a few showers hanging on across the east. Here’s regional radar to follow that action out of town…

Wednesday and Thursday continues to look very nice with seasonal temps and a mix of sun and clouds.

I’m still riding the Euro and Canadian models for the weekend forecast. Our system rolling toward us Friday may spit out a shower or two, but we effectively get a trough to split. That leaves a piece of energy behind into parts of Texas. That rolls to the northeast as a potent storm system Saturday and Sunday, bringing an increase in rain to Kentucky. The new run of the ICON has flipped to this solution…

The GFS is actually showing signs of going this way and should continue to correct over the next few days.

Temps should bounce back to normal early next week, but the mid-week system continues to look interesting. Arctic air will be diving into the west and plains states and should crank out another storm system. As that arctic air works our way, several models have been showing a taste of winter getting close to us, or for us, by Halloween.

Here’s the Canadian…

The temps off this run are pretty absurd for Halloween…

Even the GFS is showing something nearby…

The brand spanking new run of the European Weeklies from WeatherBell go all the way through the first few days of December and show an increasingly colder and active setup. Look at how much above normal our precipitation is…

That’s one interesting pipeline of precip coming out of the western Gulf of Mexico and likely means a super active southern storm track.

Snow chances also show up…

I will drop by for another update this evening. Until then, have a great day and take care.

16 Comments