Daily Archives: October 24, 2019

Time posted: 7:29 pm

Thursday Evening Update

Good evening, folks. We continue to be focused on the big storm system rolling into the bluegrass state for the coming weekend. That’s still on target to bring a lot of heavy rain and high winds our way from Friday night through Saturday night. We will also touch on the Halloween outlook in a few.

Now that we are closer to the weekend, things are coming into better focus in terms of timing and placement. Instead of writing a lot, here are the maps I’ve made to break it all down…

After the initial surge of rain, much of the action takes a break across the eastern half of the state, allowing for some decent weather for a while…

Showers and thunderstorms will be continuing across western Kentucky, then that action works back into central and eastern Kentucky Saturday evening into the wee hours of Sunday…

A general 1″-3″ of rain still look good for much of central and western Kentucky, with lighter amounts across the east.

Winds are going to be a big player, especially Saturday night. Some gusts of 50mph or greater will be possible. The NAM and Euro have some big time gusts…

NAM

EURO

Sunday looks like a breezy day with a seasonal brand of air in town as we fight some low clouds.

The setup early next week through Halloween continues to be another pain as there is zero model agreement. The GFS is still way to progressive with the Euro holding too much energy back in the southwest. The Canadian is a compromise of the two…

I leave you with your radars, including the interactive radar. If you want to track snow, that the radar and focus on Texas and Oklahoma for a rare October Snowstorm…

Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 2:52 am

A Lot Of Rain On The Way

Good Thursday, everyone. It’s all eyes on the heavy rain event moving in here for the upcoming weekend. This is a setup featuring a slow-moving storm system from the deep south, rolling northeastward across our region. That means rounds of heavy rain producing showers and thunderstorms.

Here’s an updated look at how this thing may play out…

  • Rain arrives from the south and southwest Friday afternoon into Friday evening.
  • As the low works in from the southwest on Saturday. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will become common.
  • Heavy rainfall of 1″-3″ will be possible, with locally higher amounts showing up. That could be enough to create some local high water issues.
  • The greatest threat for those high water issues will be across much of central and south central Kentucky.
  • A few strong storms may even fire up just ahead of the track of the low that lifts from southwest to northeast.
  • Rain should end from west to east on Sunday as our storm moves away.
  • Winds are going to be another big player and could reach 40mph or greater.

Many of the models are showing several inches of rain falling. I’ll take the conservative approach with the initial rain forecast through the weekend…

That would still be enough to bring local high water concerns to the region.

The wind aspect is something I’m paying more and more attention to as we get closer to this system. The setup could bring high winds to our region, with the NAM showing gusts well in excess of 50mph late Saturday into Saturday night…

Once we get past this system, our attention quickly turns to the closing days of October into early November. The setup has a late October version of Arctic air invading the Rockies and plains states. This boundary slowly works eastward and into our region. How it does so will determine if this can produce a taste of winter weather across the Ohio Valley.

The Euro continues to be pretty wrapped up with a Wednesday-Halloween system right on top of our part of the world…

The Canadian continues to be similar to the Euro in the overall evolution. The snow map for the country through Halloween continues to show the flake chance around our region…

The Icon shows a few OV flakes as well…

The GFS continues to slowly correct toward a bigger storm system along the arctic boundary. You will see this correction continue in the coming days…

The progressive nature of the GFS has been on full display this week and that doesn’t bode well for those who only rely on this model, but even it has some Ohio Valley flakes…

I will have another update later today. Until then, I leave you with regional radar to track a small shower chance in the far west today…

Have a great Thursday and take care.

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