Daily Archives: October 25, 2019

Time posted: 7:47 pm

Friday Evening Update

Good evening, gang. We continue to track heavy rain into the region and this will be with us through Saturday night. All of is coming from a strong low pressure working northward along the Mississippi River and into our part of the world.

My overall thoughts on the setup remain the same:

  • Heavy rain and thunderstorms are increasing from south to north this evening and this will increase overnight.
  • Saturday starts with showers and storms for many, with a slow decrease in the south and southeast.
  • A window of dry weather is likely across eastern Kentucky this afternoon into the early evening. That may allow temps to surge into the 70s.
  • Central Kentucky will be right on the afternoon buffer zone between the dry east and stormy west. A few showers and storms will be noted in this area.
  • Showers and storms increase from west to east Saturday evening into Saturday night.
  • Gusty winds will be noted late Saturday into Saturday night. Gusts between 40mph and 50mph will be possible.
  • The rain ends quickly in the east Sunday morning as skies become mostly cloudy. Chillier winds will be blowing, but nothing too bad.
  • Rainfall totals of 1″-3″ will be common across central and western Kentucky, with local 4″ amounts showing up. That could cause local high water issues to develop. Lighter rain amounts will be noted in the east.

Complicating matters is Tropical Storm Olga. This system is being absorbed into our low and may still be a depression as it moves into western Kentucky late Saturday…

cone graphic

Western areas of the state have the greatest risk for some flooding issues.

Looking toward the end of October, our next system continues to show up better and better. This is likely another big rain and wind maker around here for Wednesday and Halloween, with crashing temps behind it. That storm is likely to have some winter weather on the western edge of it. As expected, the GFS is finding our storm better and better…

Here are your tracking tools for the day…

Make it a great evening and take care.

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Time posted: 2:01 am

Tracking Heavy Rain Toward Kentucky

Good Friday, folks. It’s full steam ahead toward a rain and wind maker for our weekend. This system throws rain in here later today, with the worst of the weather moving in tonight through Saturday night, but some folks may see a Saturday break in the action.

Let me start things out with a rough timeline of how things play out…

The Saturday afternoon break is going to try and show up across central and eastern Kentucky and it could carry into the evening hours for some. That would be accompanied by a temp spike before another round of showers and storms sweeps to the east Saturday evening through Sunday morning. The Hi Res NAM seems to have a really good handle on all this…

Here’s the rain forecast from that run…

The GFS is much more expansive with the heavy rain swath across western and central Kentucky…

A general 1″-3″ will be likely across central and western Kentucky by Sunday morning. Locally higher amounts will be possible, adding to the local high water threat.

Winds will continue to be gusty, especially late Saturday into Saturday night. Some gusts to 50mph will be possible.

One thing that complicates the whole process is the tropical system developing in the western Gulf of Mexico…

How that gets incorporated into our developing storm system will likely play a role in the exact placement of the heaviest rains this weekend.

As far as the Wednesday – Halloween system is concerned, we are seeing the GFS slowly tending away from the progressive bias and into developing a bigger system…

It still has a lot of work to do and will continue to trend stronger and farther west.

I will have another update later today. Until then, here are some tracking toys to keep you company…

Have a great Friday and take care.