Daily Archives: October 28, 2019

Time posted: 7:24 pm

Monday Evening Update

Good evening, everyone. Our super-active pattern continues to throw storm systems at us as the overall look of the pattern across the country is more winter than October. This winter looking pattern throws a big storm system our way Wednesday into Halloween and this should cause some issues for the big holiday.

Here’s a breakdown of how this next storm system looks to play out:

  • An arctic front is stalling just to our west and this will keep us in moist southwest flow ahead of it.
  • Heavy rain and thunderstorms roll in on Wednesday and continue through Thursday as a few waves of low pressure move through.
  • The main low works right on top of us Halloween
  • Heavy rainfall of 1″-3″ will be possible across the entire state.
  • Wind gusts of greater than 30mph-40mph will be likely.
  • A few strong to severe storms are also possible starting Wednesday afternoon.
  • Temps crash from west to east on Halloween. We may be in the 60s during the morning with the 30s showing up by evening.
  • Can that drop catch the back edge of the rain and spit out a flake or two? The odds are against it, but stranger things have happened. I think there’s a better chance for some flakes north of the Ohio River.

Since finally catching on several days ago, the GFS has been very consistent with how it handles our storm and other models have been trending toward it…

The model continues to hint at the a few flakes mixing in as the cold catches the back end of the rain…

That’s interesting to say the least and why I say it’s not impossible, especially with this major temp drop during the day…

Don’t forget about the wind chill…

In terms of potential big thunderstorms, The Storm Prediction Center already has a Marginal Risk for severe storms on Wednesday across the western half of the state…

Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 2:03 am

Halloween Howler On The Way

Good Monday, folks. It’s the start of the week and our weather is looking fine and dandy, but that won’t last until the kiddos get their Halloween Candy. In case you didn’t know it, I’m a bit of a poet with weather words to make the haters stow it. 🙂 I have no idea where that came from, but I like it.

Let us start with today and roll forward. It’s awesome and Tuesday looks just as awesome. Enjoy.

The storm system rolling in here for Wednesday and Halloween looks like a pretty big system that is likely to impact trick or treat hours in many cities and towns across our region. We have an October version of an Arctic front stalling just to our west over the next couple of days. This is going to allow one weak system to pass by just to our west today and Tuesday, bringing snow as close by as northern Missouri…

That drags our boundary just a little farther south and east by Wednesday, as a much stronger storm system develops along the front and moves right on top of us. We may actually see a couple of storm systems rolling along our boundary. The end result for us will be rounds of heavy rain, the potential for a few strong storms, gusty winds and a temperature crash…

You can also see the area of potentially historic snows from the Plains into the Great Lakes. You can also see a hint of a little blue trying to show up around here for a split second.

The models are once again spitting out some hefty totals…

The Halloween temperature crash is going to be pretty dramatic. We start the day in the 60s and drop into the 30s from west to east by evening…

Another cold shot arrives this weekend, with additional shots into next week. That’s a lot of below normal air showing up across the country…

I will have another update later today. Have a good one and take care.

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