Monthly Archives: November 2019

Time posted: 2:22 am

The Action Picks Up Next Week

Good Friday, everyone. We are ending one of the coldest November weeks you will ever find around here, complete with record snows and record cold temps. As we head into the weekend, things are looking much more tranquil. But, and there’s always a but in weather, things look to change next week.

Temps are seasonally chilly out there today and into Saturday. There’s likely to be quite the temp gradient setting up from north to south across the state, with the south milder. The Hi Res NAM shows what I’m talking about. Here’s the temp animation from 7am Saturday through 11pm Saturday…

As mentioned, the pattern next week continues to have an active look to it. The early week storm along the east coast won’t directly impact our weather, but it has a couple of very weak systems diving in behind it. A touch of rain or snow shower action will be possible out of that…

In the overall scheme of that, it’s not a big deal at all.

Another system will then work in here for the end of next week and that one could have more to work with…

Canadian

Euro

I will have updates late today, so check back. Have a great Friday and take care.

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Time posted: 7:39 pm

Thursday Evening Thoughts

Good evening, folks. We’re putting the wraps on a very nice weather day across the Commonwealth and we keep the decent weather rolling into the weekend. Once beyond that, thing change as our pattern gets very busy for the week ahead.

The setup for early next week remains the same as a storm moves up the east coast with a few weaker systems diving in here from the northwest. Those may be able to spit out a touch of rain and snow in our neck of the woods. Here’s the European Model…

What comes after this has the potential to become a bigger storm system by late next week into the following weekend. The Euro is showing one system working through, bringing some colder air behind it and then has a slow moving cutoff with winter weather…

It’s interesting to note how the GFS is very similar to that…

The models will continue to flip around a lot in the coming days because there is just so much energy to throw the models for a loop.

As we start to look toward Thanksgiving week, the Ensembles keep us colder than normal…

I’ll have all the latest with a new update later tonight. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 12:49 pm

Thursday Midday Update

Good afternoon, everyone. We have a weak front moving through the region today, keeping our temps colder than normal through the coming weekend. It’s not going to be as cold as we’ve been, but it’s hard to replicate historic numbers. Once into next week, the pattern gets busy with rain and/or snow makers.

Highs over the next few days range from the upper 30s to middle 40s, depending on which part of the state you live in. Overnight lows are deep into the 20s, with a few upper teens possible in the colder valleys.

Asa a monster of a storm slowly works up the east coast, a few systems dive in behind it and wind up across the Ohio Valley. That could mean a few periods of light rain or light rain and light snow early next week…

I’m going to keep preaching about how every model will struggle in this active setup because there’s so much energy showing up. We will need to be on guard for any one of these systems to amplify into a much bigger storm, perhaps on relatively short notice.

Check out all the different systems showing up on the GFS…

That’s one heck of an active look, but the details will change dramatically from run to run.

I will have another update this evening. Make it a good one and take care.

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