Daily Archives: November 3, 2019

Time posted: 7:21 pm

Sunday Evening Look Ahead

Good evening, folks. It’s been one fine, but chilly, first weekend of November across the Commonwealth. As we head into the first full week of the month, our pattern is looking active with several cold fronts on the way. These fronts may also bring the potential for, at least, some winter weather.

Let’s take these systems one at a time. The first front is slated to arrive Monday night into early on Election Day. This should bring a small line of showers into parts of the state…

Temps on Tuesday will be a little chillier because of some clouds and showers around. It’s not going to rain all day, so no excuse to not go vote!!!

Temps do rebound on Wednesday, but our Thursday modified arctic system comes rolling in here. The models are still struggling with specifics and some (sup, GFS?) are just lost.

This system should bring rain in here on Thursday with the potential to end this as a little rain and snow Thursday night, with a few flurries into Friday. The Canadian continues to be most consistent…

The Euro has waffled a bit with intensity, but still has the same theme…

The temps on the Canadian are coldest, but the Euro isn’t too far behind. Watch this drop and notice how Friday stays in the 30s for highs…

That would lead us into a very cold weekend, but things look to tun even colder early next week with a potential true shot of arctic air. This may also have a wave of low pressure along it, bringing a winter weather threat. Here’s how the Euro sees it now…

That would certainly be a nice first snowfall of the year… much earlier than normal. This is what the GFS has been showing for some time now and it still has something…

Here’s the Euro temp setup behind all that…

The wind chill forecast from the Euro…

The trend is all we are talking about with regards to the next few systems. Never look at any one particular model and take it verbatim, because that’s not what models are meant for.  We shall see what these systems have to offer, but the operational models are matching the setup from the Ensembles and some of my early analog years.

I will have a full update later tonight… Wait… Wasn’t this a full update? You people are so spoiled. 🙂

Have a great evening and take care.

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Time posted: 1:32 am

Late Week Winter Weather Possible

Good Sunday, everyone. It’s another seasonally cold day in the bluegrass state, but our focus is on a series of cold fronts marching toward the region. The front later next week has the chance to bring a little rain and snow to parts of the state. Speaking of winter weather, I have a little sneak peek into the winter ahead.

Today and Monday are good looking days, but the seasonal chill is in the air. Once into Election Day, a weak front looks to drop toward us early on and could bring a shower to the north. Otherwise, things look pretty good for voters.

A stronger front roll in here by Thursday and should have a developing storm system along it. That means rain increases, with the potential for some snow as the front slips by and the storm system moves to our east. The Canadian has been performing well of late and shows a plausible scenario…

Check out the temps behind that system…

The wind chills from the Canadian are way down there…

The GFS is slowly shedding it’s progressive bias in these types of setups and is coming around to showing our system, but it’s too far south…

The GFS continues to see the potential bigger system coming in behind that one and unleashing some nutso cold…

As you can see, we have some early season winter action to track this year.

Let’s talk a little about the upcoming winter and where we stand as we start November. The current state of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans continues to feature water temps above normal…

You can see that warm pool of water showing up near the Gulf of Alaska. While similar to what was showing up at the same time in 2013 and 2014, there are differences in placement and magnitude…

2013

2014

Those aren’t bad matches for either the Pacific or the Atlantic. If you recall, both winters started early, took a bit of a break then came on strong for the second half of winter and gave us a lot of snow, including historic snowstorms. 2014 also gave us snowflakes on Halloween. Hmm. These also match some of the analogs I used based on September. Remember how those same analogs had some late October snows? Those worked out very well, so it’s interesting to see the current state of the oceans also match up with recent years that gave us similar conditions to the analogs.

The new seasonal JAMSTEC is out and it shows a continuation of that warm pool in the Gulf of Alaska from December through February…

The corresponding December through February anomalies suggest a busy southern storm track with ample cold air available…

As always, we shall see.

I’ll throw you another update, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

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