Daily Archives: November 7, 2019

Time posted: 7:36 pm

More Thursday Thoughts

Good evening, everyone. Baby, it’s cold outside and it’s getting colder. This cold is the opening act to a much bigger shot of arctic air due in here early next week. That one is likely to be accompanied by, at least, some snow.

The short-term forecast remains unchanged, so there’s no deed to rehash it all.

My thoughts on early next week remain unchanged. We will have an arctic front dropping in here on Monday and will unleash near record breaking cold behind it. A wave of low pressure is likely to develop along the front and could very well bring a swath of snow across our region. The details are a long way from being known, so we continue to put this in the “watching the trends” category.

Let’s see how the late day model world is handling this…

The GFS found it again…

The European continues to see it…


Can we get our first light snowfall of the VERY young season? That’s certainly a possibility as we keep watching the trends.

A full blown update comes your way later tonight. Have a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 12:25 pm

Thursday Midday Thoughts

Good Thursday, everyone. Rain continues to soak the bluegrass state as our temps are just starting to crash from northwest to southeast. That crash may cause the rain to end with a few flakes for some, then we focus on the looming arctic shot and snow potential early next week.

The rain ends as the day wears on as temps crash from northwest to southeast. That crash means a few flakes will be possible, especially in the north. Once the main precipitation shield pushes east, a few snowflakes may show up across the southeast later this evening.

Here are your tracking tools…

Temps tonight drop into the low and middle 20s for many. If skies totally clear, a few of the colder locations may dip into the upper teens. Wind chills will be in the teens to begin Friday. Highs won’t get out of the 30s for many, even with a little sun.

Saturday starts in the 20s with highs in the 40s for much of the state. Can we squeeze out an early morning flurry? Meh, maybe.

Sunday looks like the “mildest” day as readings surge well into the 50s ahead of our arctic front arriving on Monday.

The Canadian continues to see this well..

So does the ICON…

The GFS is back to being the GFS with the progressive bias…

As a friendly reminder, the several days ago the GFS had zero precipitation in our region for today because of this same progressive bias.

I will have the latest on WKYT starting at 4pm then with another KWC update this evening. Until then, make it a good one and take care.


Time posted: 1:56 am

Today’s Temp Crash Is A Sign Of Things To Come

Good Thursday, everyone. We have a surge of modified arctic air sweeping into the region today, but this is just the opening act for a much bigger surge of winter weather early next week. That will be complete with the real deal arctic cold and even the potential for snow.

Let’s start with where we are today and roll forward. Rain becomes widespread this morning as our front drops in here from the northwest. That’s going to set up a big temperature drop behind this front as the 30s show up very quickly. As that happens, a few snowflakes try to mix in on the back edge of the departing rain shield. Here are your early Thursday radars…

As that strong northwesterly wind flow kicks in, a few flakes may also show up in southeastern Kentucky after the main band of precip pushes out. Those same gusty winds will give us some ugly wind chill numbers. Check out the numbers through early Friday…

Actual lows by Friday morning have a chance to hit the teens in some of the coldest valleys…

Highs on Friday may stay in the 30s for many, with the winds making it feel colder. Readings drop into the 20s during high school playoff games that evening.

Saturday is a seasonally chilly day with 20s in the morning and mid and upper 40s in the afternoon. The 50s return for Sunday as winds gust up ahead of our arctic blast arriving on Monday. The arctic front moving in here is likely to have a band of rain in front of it and snow behind it. There could be a wave of low pressure along the front to enhance the snow chances for Monday into Tuesday. All the models see this, but show their usual differences from a few days away…





The air coming in behind our front could bring record or near record lows into our region. Some of the latest runs are showing historic cold for this early in the season…


I will have updates later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.