Daily Archives: November 8, 2019

Time posted: 7:54 pm

Start Of The Weekend Update

Good evening, folks. Our taste of modified arctic air is upon us to kick off the weekend, but the focus continues to be on what’s coming in here early next week. That’s when a real deal arctic front slams in here, bringing rain to snow and the potential for record cold.

The late day model runs remain fairly solid with how it all plays out. Once the GFS finally found this system, it’s been very consistent with it…

Since we are only a few days away, let’s see what the model is suggesting for snowfall…

Again, that’s the model talking and the next update may change things a bit. I’m not ready to commit to any accumulating snow, but the potential is certainly there.

We also need to watch that northwest wind coming down the length of Lake Michigan. That may be aimed into central and eastern Kentucky for a time on Tuesday. That could create all kinds of snow showers IF the flow is right.

I’m trying to figure out what the European is doing with the whole evolution because of what the model has just behind this. Here’s the Euro for Monday and Tuesday…

The Euro then follows that up with a big storm by Thursday and Friday…

While the models have been hinting at another system possible, that seems a little too much for my taste and I’m not even sure any kind of system exists, yet.

Looking a little farther down the road, the ensembles all agree on a deep trough hanging out in the eastern part of the country as far as they can see…

GFS Ensembles

Euro Ensembles

Enjoy the rest of your evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:23 pm

Friday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. We are rolling through a Frigid Friday here in the bluegrass state with the coldest air of the young season, so far. As we head into early next week, a bigger blast of cold is on the way and this one may be accompanied by winter weather.

Let’s start this party by looking back at our cold morning. Several Kentucky Mesonet sites made it into the upper teens…

The setup for early next week continues to look the same with an arctic front working in here on Monday. That front may not get in here until Monday afternoon with rain ahead of it and snow behind it. We’ve been talking about the wave of low pressure along the front and that still looks good. Can we get a couple of lows to actually develop along the front? That’s possible. It’s also possible to see that energy consolidate into a bigger storm system.

For us, this continues to look like rain to snow on Monday with snow showers and flurries behind this into Tuesday as bitterly cold air pushes in. Record cold will be possible.

Here’s how the latest GFS sees it playing out…

The Canadian…

Can we get a light snowfall out of this Monday night into Tuesday? That’s possible, but not a certainty. That said, its fun to track the possibilities this early in the year.

The WPC shows the track of this high from the Arctic to right on top of Kentucky in the coming days…

Again, record lows are into the low teens during this time and we could challenge those in some areas. The Canadian would blow those records into bits and pieces with the numbers it’s showing for lows…

Likely too cold, but dang!

Watch another system to try and move in here behind all that later next week with another deep trough likely the following week. Old Man Winter ain’t holding back to start things out.

I will have the latest on WKYT starting at 4 and back here on KWC this evening.

Have a fantastic afternoon and take care.

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Time posted: 2:12 am

Watching Early Next Week

Good Friday, folks. We’ve made it to the end of the week and the weekend is just hours away from kicking off. While things are cold to start the weekend, it doesn’t look too bad over the next few days, but that’s not the focus of the forecast. We continue to watch the potential for winter weather and arctic cold temps by Monday and Tuesday.

Today’s weather is much colder than normal with low and mid 20s to start with a wind chill in the teens, and highs ranging from the upper 30s for many, to low 40s for some.

Our weekend weather will see a mix of sun and clouds around as highs hit the 40s on Saturday and mid to upper 50s Sunday. Winds will be rather gusty on Sunday with late day clouds on the increase.

The setup for early next week remains fairly well behaved so far. Before we get to the models, here are some CB thoughts:

  • The arctic front drops in from the northwest on Monday, but the exact timing for any one location is yet to be determined.
  • A band of rain may focus along and ahead of the front and before the temp crash.
  • Much of the precipitation with a front like this is usually focused behind it and into the cold air. That’s where a band of light snow can set up.
  • A wave of low pressure is going to try to develop along this front. If that happens near us, it can enhance the band of snow behind the front.
  • As this system pulls away Tuesday, a STRONG northwest wind could produce snow showers and flurries for many. Lake Michigan may be wide open for business and we may get in on some of that action.
  • Can we get an early season light snowfall? That’s certainly a possibility, especially across central and eastern Kentucky. No promises as of now! 😉
  • There are no current indications of this being anything other than a light winter weather maker at best.
  • Temps will be crazy cold for this time of year. Highs for Tuesday and Wednesday may not get above freezing and lows can reach deep into the teens. Wind chills could even reach single digits in the morning hours.

A quick check of the models find the GFS and Euro with a similar look…

GFS

EURO

We shall see what, if any, trends develop with updates later today. Have a great Friday and take care.

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