Daily Archives: November 10, 2019

Time posted: 7:37 pm

First Call For Snowfall

Good evening, folks. I promised to drop by to deliver the often imitated First Call For Snowfall map. It’s the first one of the young winter season, but Old Man Winter is still the boss and dictates when we have to break it out. For the first measurable event of the season, this one isn’t too bad, especially considering its still early November.

I’ve already given you my thoughts on what I’m expecting, but here’s it is in map form…

I decided to blanket the entire region in the coating-2″ area just to avoid confusion. Most areas should, at least, see a covering of snow, with some picking up an inch or two. If we are to see locally higher amounts show up, the best chance is across the southeast. You will also notice I added a few headlines to the map. That’s something I’m going to start doing for y’all.

I will freshen that map up if needed later tonight and into Monday.

As our temps crash quickly Monday evening and Monday night, this is a good recipe for a flash freeze as it comes after some rain and while it’s snowing. Some delays and cancellations are certainly possible Tuesday morning, especially in the east.

The late afternoon models are generally in line with my thinking and the NAM fam flipped to what other models have been showing…

Hi Res NAM

Hi Res NAM Snow Map

NAM

NAM Snow Map

GFS

GFS Snow Map

Short Range Canadian

Short Range Canadian Snow

I will have a full update and a New Call For Snowfall coming up later tonight, so check back. Have a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 1:42 pm

Sunday Afternoon Winter Weather Update

Good afternoon, everyone.It’s a gorgeous day in the bluegrass state and that nice weather will roll over into the first part of Monday. The second half of Monday will feature an arctic front slamming in, bringing frigid temps and the first snowfall of the season for many.

Here are some updated thoughts:

  • The late arriving front means temps are mild for the daylight hours on Monday. Once the front blows in, temps drop some 20-30 degrees in a few hours.
  • Highs Monday may reach the low 60s and then be roughly 40 degrees colder by Tuesday morning with upper teens and low 20s.
  • Rain develops along and ahead of the front, then quickly transitions to snow behind it. That’s where the bulk of the precipitation will be.
  • A decent band of light to moderate snow will be noted as it works from northwest to southeast across the state.
  • As our wave of low pressure develops, there is likely to be an enhancement of the snow across southeastern Kentucky late Monday night and early Tuesday morning.
  • The northwest wind coming down the length of Lake Michigan is aimed at central and eastern Kentucky into Tuesday, keeping flurries and snow showers going.
  • Snowfall accumulation is likely across the entire region. Coatings to 2″ look good, especially on grassy and elevated surfaces. We will have to watch southeastern Kentucky for the possibility of locally higher amounts showing up.
  • I will have a First Call For Snowfall map out later this evening.
  • Given the rapid temp drop, slick spots will likely develop on area roads Monday night and Tuesday. This may bring a few delays or cancellations.
  • Temps are frigid and wind chills will be crazy for this early in the year. Record lows will be possible Wednesday.

The models continue to be in pretty good agreement with one another.

GFS

GFS Snowfall Map

European

Euro Snow Map

Short Range Canadian

Short Range Canadian Snow Map by 7am Tuesday

Canadian Snow Map

The NAM is the wimpiest with the snow numbers, but one of the biases is for the model to be too dry with systems moving in from the northwest. That’s usually the case with any kind of precip. Here’s the NAM…

One trend on all models from above is for the general coating to 2″ snow potential. The other is for the potential for a little more than that across the southeast.

Temps are going to be brutal for early November. Here are the lows for Tuesday morning…

Tuesday Morning Wind Chills

Wednesday Morning Lows

Wednesday Morning Wind Chills

Folks, this is a heck of a winter blast for so early in the season!

I will have another update later today. See ya then and take care.

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Time posted: 2:09 am

First Light Snowfall Potential Increasing

Good Sunday, everyone. It’s a really nice weather day taking shape across the bluegrass state, but it’s all eyes on an arctic front ready to slam in here later Monday. This front will usher in near record lows and bring along our first chance for light accumulating snows across the entire region.

Let’s start you off with a breakdown of how things look to play out:

  • The slower arrival of the arctic front means milder temps during the daylight hours of Monday. Readings can reach the low 60s.
  • That just sets us up for a bigger drop with temps dropping like a rock as the front moves through. You may have a nearly 30 degree drop in just an hour or two.
  • Rain will develop in the afternoon and evening, but much of the precipitation is behind the front in the form or snow.
  • A nice shield of light to moderate snow is likely to develop and work across the state Monday evening through Tuesday morning.
  • A cold flow coming down the length of a relatively warm Lake Michigan will bring snow showers and flurries into our region on Tuesday.
  • Snow accumulations are a good bet, though I’m not ready to commit to specific totals and locations just yet. At this point, the entire state and surrounding areas would pretty much be in the coating-2″ range.
  • A First Call For Snowfall will come your way at some point today. 🙂
  • With such a rapid temperature drop, a flash freeze will be possible. This could cause some slick spots to develop Monday night and Tuesday.
  • The arctic cold air is very impressive! Temps stay in the 20s on Tuesday afternoon and that’s crazy hard to do this time of year. Lows on Tuesday morning can reach the teens in many areas. Record lows of 10-15 will be possible Wednesday morning.
  • Wind chills will drop into the single digits at times early Tuesday and early Wednesday.

The latest round of models continue to back up everything you just read…

GFS

Here’s the snow map from that run of the GFS…

European

Euro snow map…

Canadian

Canadian snow map…

I will have multiple updates today, so keep checking back. Have a good one and take care.

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