Daily Archives: November 14, 2019

Time posted: 7:39 pm

Thursday Evening Thoughts

Good evening, folks. We’re putting the wraps on a very nice weather day across the Commonwealth and we keep the decent weather rolling into the weekend. Once beyond that, thing change as our pattern gets very busy for the week ahead.

The setup for early next week remains the same as a storm moves up the east coast with a few weaker systems diving in here from the northwest. Those may be able to spit out a touch of rain and snow in our neck of the woods. Here’s the European Model…

What comes after this has the potential to become a bigger storm system by late next week into the following weekend. The Euro is showing one system working through, bringing some colder air behind it and then has a slow moving cutoff with winter weather…

It’s interesting to note how the GFS is very similar to that…

The models will continue to flip around a lot in the coming days because there is just so much energy to throw the models for a loop.

As we start to look toward Thanksgiving week, the Ensembles keep us colder than normal…

I’ll have all the latest with a new update later tonight. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 12:49 pm

Thursday Midday Update

Good afternoon, everyone. We have a weak front moving through the region today, keeping our temps colder than normal through the coming weekend. It’s not going to be as cold as we’ve been, but it’s hard to replicate historic numbers. Once into next week, the pattern gets busy with rain and/or snow makers.

Highs over the next few days range from the upper 30s to middle 40s, depending on which part of the state you live in. Overnight lows are deep into the 20s, with a few upper teens possible in the colder valleys.

Asa a monster of a storm slowly works up the east coast, a few systems dive in behind it and wind up across the Ohio Valley. That could mean a few periods of light rain or light rain and light snow early next week…

I’m going to keep preaching about how every model will struggle in this active setup because there’s so much energy showing up. We will need to be on guard for any one of these systems to amplify into a much bigger storm, perhaps on relatively short notice.

Check out all the different systems showing up on the GFS…

That’s one heck of an active look, but the details will change dramatically from run to run.

I will have another update this evening. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 1:47 am

Quiet and Chilly For A Few Days

Good Thursday, everyone. Compared to what we’ve been seeing of late, the pattern for the next few days looks pretty darn boring. It’s a quiet and seasonally cold setup that closes out the week and rolls into the coming weekend. Once into next week, things look to ramp up again.

Let’s begin with today and roll ahead. Highs will return to the 40s for many, but we are likely to see the north struggle to get much past 40.

Temps do come back down some for Friday and Saturday. Lows are deep into the 20s with highs ranging from the upper 30s to middle 40s across the state. Those numbers are still colder than we should be for the middle of November.

The setup for early next week continues to find a big storm system along the east coast and a series of disturbances dropping into our region. These may bring some rain and snow in here and the models are starting to pick up on this potential…

Canadian

GFS

We need to watch for the potential for that energy to turn into something stronger as it dives in from the northwest.

 

A stronger looking system does look to move in here later next week, bringing another rain and winter weather threat…

I will have your usual updates later today. Have a great one and take care.

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