Daily Archives: November 19, 2019

Time posted: 8:00 pm

Tuesday Evening Look Ahead

Good evening, folks. Chilly showers continue to work across central and eastern Kentucky with a lot more action to follow. I’m really trying to drive home how the fact of just how active this pattern is in the coming weeks. It’s one to bring quite a bit of action our way, including the potential for some winter weather.

Let’s begin with tracking the showers out there this evening…

As far as the late week and weekend system is concerned, the European Model has corrected itself to a much farther south and east with the track of the Friday night/Saturday low. That brings the rain/snow line into Kentucky later Saturday…

As I’ve been telling you, this is our first ‘all about the track of the low’ system. We shall see.

The GFS continues to throw out a totally different solution with each run of the model…

Bless it.

As we look into the storm for early next week, we are already seeing the European slowly correcting east…

So is the GFS…

That could be a large and disruptive storm to kick off the busy Thanksgiving travel period!

I want to share a very cool animation of the Euro Ensembles for late November into early December. Check out the block across Greenland and northeastern Canada and how consistent it is, allowing lower heights to dance around it across the northern hemisphere…

That’s pretty awesome to see and notice how those troughs seem to be circling the globe in perfect unison… Kinda like a carousel.

Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:20 pm

Tuesday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, gang. Our clipper is pushing into the area, bringing a round of chilly showers with it. By now you know this is kicking off a very active pattern that’s loaded with storm systems. The next one is aimed at us later this week into the start of the weekend. That one brings a lot of rain and the potential for winter weather.

Let’s start with what’s going on today and roll forward. Showers will become fairly widespread across central and eastern Kentucky. Here are your radars…

I have no real changes to my thoughts on the late week and early weekend system. The models continue to figure out the whole evolution of this dual system. Here’s the GFS…

The Canadian

As far as the Thanksgiving Week systems are concerned, the GFS sees the two storms and really wraps up the first one far to the west…

As if things weren’t active enough, we have a rogue tropical storm in the Atlantic. Say hello to Sebastien…

cone graphic

That shouldn’t have a big impact on the overall pattern, but I still don’t like seeing that this late in the season.

I will have another update on KWC coming this evening and I’ll have the latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm. Until then, make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 2:03 am

Clipper Showers Start A Super Active Setup

Good Tuesday, everyone. We have a clipper system rolling into the region today, producing chilly showers from northwest to southeast. This is kicking off a super active of a setup with much bigger systems later this week and into Thanksgiving week. Can we get some winter weather out of these? Yes. Will we? We shall see.

Today’s showers increase quickly from northwest to southeast as the day wears on. This will bring the main band of rain across central and eastern parts of the state. If this were December, we would be talking about accumulating snows, but the air isn’t quite cold enough this go round. Still, I can rule out a stray flake or two, especially in the mountains.

Here are your radars to track today’s action…

Wednesday will find temps climbing with the low 60s in the west to the low 50s in the northeast. Will northeastern Kentucky be able to squeeze out a stray shower still.

The late week and weekend system continues to trend toward the direction I talked about in earlier posts. The models are starting to find common ground between the two earlier extreme solutions of the GFS and Euro.

The first system throws some showers at us later Thursday with heavier rains on Friday. The track of the low then produces rain and the possibility of winter weather on the northern and western side of the track. Exactly where that is remains to be seen.

Here’s the latest run of the GFS…

The Euro…

The ICON is also trying for a little winter, but it looks too wimpy with the overall system…

The GFS Ensembles are similar to earlier runs…

Looking ahead to the potential of a pre-Thanksgiving storm system, we find the European Model farther east with a potent looking low pressure Tuesday into Wednesday…

The Canadian Model isn’t as wound up in the Ohio Valley, instead going for a farther east bombogenesis…

Another potent system may try to follow that up at some point into the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.

We have lots to track, my friends! Your usual updates come later today. Until then, have a great day and take care.

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