Daily Archives: November 20, 2019

Time posted: 7:33 pm

Tracking The Late Week/Weekend System

Good evening, folks. Our gloom and chill continues as we watch the next system rolling in here over the next few days. This is a system that will bring waves of rain, gusty winds, a big temp swing and the potential for a little weekend winter weather.

We’ve got a lot to talk about and a short time to do it in, so let’s get cracking.

The trend on the models continues to basically follow what we’ve been talking about. This system is now within the range of the NAM and it is showing that chance for a touch of snow late Saturday…

The European Model is similar…

The ICON is also showing a similar possibility…

The system coming in early Thanksgiving week is still all over the place with the models. The European Model continues to show a farther east track with this system…

That ones a long way off from being etched in stone, obviously. Still, it’s likely a big impact on the busy travel period.

Oh and the Ensembles continue to have a very cold look. Here are the Euro Ensembles through early December…

Brr!

Enjoy the rest of your evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:44 pm

Wednesday Midday Thoughts

Good afternoon, everyone. It’s a dreary day out there as low clouds and some drizzle lingers, keeping temps down in the 40s for many. As we roll into the rest of the week, we have a healthy storm system set to bring us rain and the chance for a little winter weather. Overall, this pattern continues to be loaded with action over the next few weeks.

Showers will increase on Thursday as temps make a run at 60 ahead of the drops. Heavy rain arrives Thursday night into Friday as temps start to come back down.

This sets the stage for low pressure to work into the region by Saturday, bringing more rain into the state. The track of this low is important for determining if we can get some winter weather into parts of the state late Saturday into Saturday night.

The Canadian follows that scenario…

Here’s the GFS

The ICON shows a little winter weather on the tail end of this…

Here’s a quick breakdown of the highlights of this system:

  • Rainfall totals of 1″-2″ will be possible from Thursday through Saturday.
  • As the Saturday low moves through, there could be a 20-30 degree temp difference from one side of the low to the other.
  • Depending on the track of the low, there’s a chance for a little winter weather later Saturday. The best chance is across the north.
  • If this low is strong enough, a little rain and snow action will be possible across the area Saturday night into Sunday morning.

The storm system for early Thanksgiving week continues to bounce around on the models. Here’s the current take from the GFS…

Looking farther down the road, the ensembles continue to show a blocky pattern that can lead to some fun and games into early December…

You’ve been seeing me posting the Ensembles and how they have a pretty exciting look for the country into early December. Check out this tweet from Dr. Cohen…

It’s always good to see smarter folks than me picking up on the same thing. Of course, it doesn’t take much to fall into that category. 🙂

I’ll have another update later today and will have the latest on WKYT beginning at 4. Have a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 2:13 am

Watching A Late Week/Weekend System

Good Wednesday, everyone. Clouds are hanging tough across the region today as we turn our attention toward our next system showing up at the end of the week. This one has quite a bit of rain with it and this has a chance to end with some winter weather on Saturday. Beyond that, the pattern may throw a couple more systems our way over the Thanksgiving holiday period.

Low clouds may be pretty darn stubborn out there today. If that is the case, temps may not get out of the 40s where you live. If we can get some sun, readings reach the 50s.

Our next system begins to impact the region on Thursday as a few showers push in from the west and southwest. Temps can spike to 60 or so before the scattered showers arrive. From there, rain increases Thursday night into Friday as temps come back down.

That’s when the next low works into our region by Saturday, bringing more rain and the potential for a touch of winter weather late in the day. The track of the low on the Euro is just a little farther north than the last run, bringing just a chance for some flakes by Saturday evening…

The GFS has a similar theme, but this model is really a disjointed disaster with each run…

It’s also fun to watch the setup for early Thanksgiving week. It’s opposite day for the GFS and European Models because they’ve traded places with how they’re handling the setup.

The GFS is the most wound up and farther west with a monster of a storm…

The European is more progressive and farther east…

Once again, the truth is likely somewhere in the middle of those, but that run of the Euro matches what the JMA has been saying all along.

I will have your daily dose of updates later on so check back. Have a good one and take care.

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