Daily Archives: November 24, 2019

Time posted: 7:42 pm

Sunday Evening Thoughts

Good evening, folks. The week ahead of weather is going to be a busy one as we close out November on a very active note. Several systems are set to impact our weather before we head into a setup that features arctic shots in the opening week of December.

I won’t rehash everything in terms of maps for the week ahead, so here are the headlines:

  • Showers and thunderstorms arrive Tuesday into early Wednesday as a potent storm cranks to our west and heads into the Great Lakes.
  • High winds are possible with this system. We could see 40-50mph wind gusts.
  • A weaker system makes a run at us on Thanksgiving, bringing a few showers with it. The leading edge of this has the chance to start as a bit of a mix.
  • A much stronger system then develops in the plains by Friday and works into the Great Lakes. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible ahead of this on Saturday. High winds will also be a big player.
  • A big time temp crash occurs behind this system from Sunday into Monday. That crash should include some snows breaking out.
  • From there, arctic cold then rolls in here from the northwest into the first week of December.

The operational models are going to continue to struggle with the overall setup and that’s something I’ve talked about for a while now. There’s just so much going on and it’s a lot for them to handle.

One thing to look for is the -EPO developing into early December…

That’s a big signal for a trough into the eastern part of the country. The European Ensembles see a big trough early next week then has another one digging in behind it after a brief relaxation…

I will go more in depth on everything later tonight. One more time to listen to the Kentucky Weather Podcast winter weather outlook…

Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 2:09 pm

Sunday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. I wanted to drop by for a very quick update on the pattern ahead as we roll into Thanksgiving week. Things continue to look very active with several systems on the way, unlocking what appears to be a very wintry pattern for December.

The Tuesday system continues to look potent, bringing gusty winds and showers and storms in here for Tuesday and early Wednesday…

Wind gusts will likely top 40mph during this time. The NAM continues to throw out 50mph+ gusts…

The next system is mainly a shower maker as it moves in on Thanksgiving…

The GFS continues to spit out a small period of sleet on the leading edge of this across western Kentucky…

That sets the stage for a very busy rest of the holiday weekend as a bigger storm comes at us. Showers and thunderstorms look to come at us in waves, with the potential for strong to severe storms as temps spike. Following that comes a winter blast and some snow. Here’s the GFS showing what I’m talking about…

The Canadian is a little slower, but offers the same general idea…

I will have another update this evening. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 2:39 am

Lots Of Action For Thanksgiving Week

Good Sunday, everyone. As a weak system pushes out of here early today, it’s time to turn our full attention to an action packed Thanksgiving week. We have 3 systems likely to impact our weather over the big holiday period and a couple of these will be potent. Buckle up for a wild ride that takes us into a very wintry looking setup.

Speaking of wintry, a band of snow is working out of eastern Kentucky early this morning. Some light slush will show up on elevated and grassy surfaces. Here’s regional radar…

Morehead

Pikeville

Whitesburg

After a fairly calm late Sunday into Monday, the action picks up quickly on Tuesday as storm number one moves from the plains toward the Great Lakes. That’s a monster of a storm that will drag a cold front across Kentucky, producing showers and thunderstorms to go along with gusty winds. The second system moves our way on Thanksgiving and could bring a few showers that may start out with something else. The GFS seems to be doing pretty good with both of these storms…

I mentioned the first storm is likely a big wind maker around here. The NAM is way up there with Tuesday night gusts…

The second system is mainly a shower maker, but some dry air in place could mean a touch of sleet at the onset. The GFS sees this in the west…

The rest of the Thanksgiving weekend looks to be very active and we could be talking about some issues developing. A major storm looks to develop and slowly move our way. Ahead of this, temps will spike on a strong southwesterly wind. This may put us in a severe weather risk next Saturday.  Once the storm goes by, a MAJOR temp crash takes place and we could be talking about a light snowfall a day or two later.

That storm introduces us to arctic air and more snow chances into the first week of December…

I will have updates later today, so y’all come back.

For those who may have missed the winter forecast, the Kentucky Weather Podcast has ya covered…

Make it a good one and take care.

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