Daily Archives: November 25, 2019

Time posted: 7:34 pm

Big Time Winds Ahead

Good evening, folks. I wanted to drop by for another update on the busy weather pattern taking shape for our big Thanksgiving travel period. This kicks off with a high wind maker that may very well cause some issues from late Tuesday into Wednesday morning.

Tuesday night into the first half of Wednesday could feature wind gusts greater than 50mph. The Hi Res NAM continues to increase the numbers a bit…

Showers and thunderstorms will also be noted during this time, but that action ends quickly from west to east on Wednesday.

Another system brings a few showers toward us on Thanksgiving Day, but that will have to overcome some dry air.

The next system is about to slam into the Pacific northwest as one of the strongest storms ever recorded in that part of the world. This is just one of the reasons we are seeing the models having so many issues. Earlier, I showed how the GFS was changing from run to run, but most models are doing the same thing.

The European Model is doing the same, but has the overall theme right. Strong storms to light snow around here from Saturday into Sunday…

The last run of the model had a ridge popping behind that. The new run as a storm diving from the northwest the middle of next week…

This flopping is something I talked about last week. There’s so much energy that the models can’t handle it.

I do want to show the JMA with the Saturday-Sunday system as it bowls that system due east on top of us …

Enjoy your evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:29 pm

Monday Midday Update

Good afternoon, folks. Our Thanksgiving week is off and running on a very nice weather note, but it won’t be staying that way for much longer.  Two major storm systems are set to impact our Thanksgiving travel period, with a smaller one sandwiched in between.

Showers and storms arrive late Tuesday into Tuesday night as storm number one heads into the Great Lakes, dragging a cold front across Kentucky. This will bring some big time winds our way and we could be talking about 50mph+ gusts…

The smaller system then throws a shower or two at us on Thanksgiving, especially across the western part of the state. With dry air in place, this may have a tough time getting too far east, but it may also start out as a ping of sleet in the west.

The next system quickly follows that up , impacting our weather from Black Friday through Monday. This storm wraps up to our west then cuts due east. Temps spike ahead of this then crash behind it, leading to the potential for strong or severe thunderstorms in the middle. Winds will also be very gusty as we go from thunderstorms to light snow  in less than a day.

Listen, there’s a lot of extreme energy showing up on the weather maps and that means some big model struggles and model swings. Let me use the GFS as exhibit A. Watch how it drastically changes with the setup behind our first storm…

6z run

12z

The GFS is the GFS, but this pattern will continue to cause some pretty big swings for each model as they are incapable of handling such extreme setups as the one we are seeing.

As far as the other models are concerned. The Canadian looks more like the 6z GFS…

The ICON doesn’t go out as far as the other models, but I can’t find any issues with what it’s showing through next Monday…

 

I will update things later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 2:08 am

Buckle Up For A Wild Ride

Good Monday, everybody. It’s Thanksgiving week and our weather pattern is in a hyper-active mood that will produce some pretty wild weather. We have 3 different storm systems to track through the holiday weekend and these could spawn a lot of wind and rain. The last of the bunch ushers in a winter pattern to start December.

Let’s take them one at a time and start with the first system arriving late Tuesday into early Wednesday. This comes as a strong low pressure works from the plains into the Great Lakes, dragging a cold front across Kentucky. Showers and thunderstorms will sweep eastward across the state, bringing the threat for high winds…

That’s going to bring near blizzard conditions for the plains and western Great Lakes. For us, the main threat appears to come from the high wind potential…

NAM

Hi-Res NAM

A weaker system tries to throw a few showers our way at some point Thanksgiving, but this doesn’t look like a big deal. The same cannot be said of the next storm system. This one will be a major plains storm that looks to cut due east into the Great Lakes this weekend. The end result for us looks to be rounds of rain, the potential for strong to severe storms, gusty winds and a quick switch to cold and snow.

The GFS gives us a good look at this scenario…

The Canadian has a similar look, but shows the potential for a lot more rain before winter arrives…

The ICON doesn’t go out as far as the other models, but it shows a lot more rain before the switch to winter…

Once all that goes through, we are likely to see a system or two dropping in from the northwest next week. These can be light snow makers around here as arctic shots show up…

We will update things later today. Have a good one and take care.

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