Daily Archives: December 3, 2019

Time posted: 7:34 pm

Tuesday Evening Update

Good evening, everyone. A weak system is working across the area right now, but things are looking much better over the next few days. Beyond that, it’s a quick shower maker for Friday then the pattern threatens to go into the winter tank starting next week.

Before we get to weather, this happened today…

Everyone finally agrees the Blue Grass Airport thermometer is terribly wrong. As you know, this is something I’ve been drawing attention to for years. The folks at the NWS want to do the right thing and I’m confident this will finally get fixed soon. To those folks who’ve given me grief over the years for my constant bashing of the official Lexington temps and snowfall measurements, everyone today agrees it’s been poor and has to get better. I expect a personal apology from each of you. 😉

As far as the weather is concerned, we have a weak system trying to bring a flake or two to the north this evening…

Wednesday and Thursday continue to look good, so enjoy it.

A fast moving shower maker rolls through here on Friday with chilly temps…

A cold shot of air comes in for Friday night into Saturday.

Early next week will feature a major arctic attack showing up across the country. The details on how it all evolves and what impacts it has on our weather remain to be seen. The first arctic front looks to arrive by Tuesday. Ahead of this comes a lot of rain and wind for Monday, with the potential for a switch to snow as temps crash Tuesday…

That’s some really cold air coming in here for the middle of next week and that could mean wind chills get way down there.

The arctic air will likely hang tough across the northern half of the country, with the potential for winter weather makers riding underneath it later next week…

It’s not just the operational models that are going frigid, the ensembles are too. Keep in mind, the GFS ensemble mean shows the average of 21 members and usually smoothes out in time. Look at what it’s showing for temp departures from early next week into early the following week…

That would also be conducive for some snows. That’s something the average of the nearly 50 member Euro Ensembles are seeing…

Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:33 pm

Tuesday Midday Thoughts

Good afternoon, everyone. It’s another cold day in the bluegrass state as gusty winds make it feel even colder. There is a weak system dropping in from the northwest today and that has a chance to spit out a few sprinkles or flurries. As we look down the road, a cold shower maker arrives Friday with the potential for next week to turn into a headline maker across much of the country.

Let us begin with the afternoon and roll forward. Highs are generally in the 30s with a wind chill in the 20s. That weak system does drop in from the northwest and you can watch it here…

Wednesday and Thursday will see temps back closer to normal with a mix of sun and clouds. Clouds will increase by Thursday night ahead of our cold shower maker for Friday. This one is close to producing a few flakes in the north…

That’s a nice shot of cold behind it for Friday night into Sunday.

This is where things begin to get interesting. An arctic front moves our way early next week and may have a couple f low pressures along it. Heavy rain and gusty winds are likely ahead of this on Monday with arctic air spilling in behind it and the chance for some snow by Tuesday.

The GFS has the right idea, but is likely in progressive mode…

I will have the latest on WKYT starting at 4 and then again this evening on KWC. Have a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 2:24 am

Colder Than Normal Continues

Good Tuesday, everyone. Coming off a very cold November, our below normal numbers continue here into the first week of December. This week will also feature a couple of weak systems, before a much stronger setup rolls in here early next week. There is now an increased push for bitterly cold air to engulf the country on several models at the same time.

Highs today won’t get out of the 30s for many in central and eastern Kentucky. Most folks forget that normal highs this time of year are still in the upper 40s to around 50.

Gusty winds will make it feel like the 20s for much of the day and a few snow showers and flurries will still be around in the east early on. There’s a very weak system dropping in from the northwest later today, but this looks mainly dry. That said, there’s an outside chance for a brief rain or snow shower late today.

Here’s regional radar to keep you company…

Our next system arrives Thursday night and Friday and is a chilly, light shower maker…

That’s a nice shot of cold coming in behind that for Friday night and Saturday.

That brings us to early next week and a setup that’s getting more and more interesting. The models are now really keying on a severe arctic air outbreak heading into the United States. If the models are correct, you will start hearing the term Polar Vortex being thrown around. Here’s why…

That’s some major blocking forcing that lobe of the PV to drop into southern Canada and the northern part of the country. Record early season cold could be noted across parts of the country if that verifies.

Around here, the introduction to this comes in the form of a cold front with plenty of heavy rain on Monday. That front may slow down with waves of low pressure along it or, if the PV is really flexing muscle, push through with a true arctic surge with snow behind it.

That’s what the GFS is suggesting…

The EURO isn’t too dissimilar, but is slower with the first front and that allows the arctic air to overspread more east to west. In turn, this  could keep snowmakers traversing the southern edge of this. I’ve got the big view of the Euro to give you the full scene…

I will update things later on, so check back. Until then, have a good one and take care.

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