Daily Archives: December 5, 2019

Time posted: 2:12 am

It’s About To Get Busy Again

Good Thursday, folks. Here’s hoping this update finds you living your best life! It’s a really good looking day in Kentucky, but that changes in a hurry by Friday. That’s when some ugly works in here and that’s the opening act toward a much bigger system arriving by Monday. That one looks to unlock arctic air and possible winter weather.

Let’s start with our Friday system. It’s a chilly rain maker rolling from west to east…

Rainfall may be from a quarter to a half inch for some…

From here, we have arctic air diving into the country and largely taking control of the pattern. An arctic front moves our way early next week and is likely to have low pressure along it or a series of weak lows. We’re now in the time frame where we find the models handling everything differently from run to run.

The setup, to me, looks like rain and wind Monday into Monday night as temps spike to near 60. As the front moves through, temps tank from west to east on Tuesday as rain changes to, at least, some snow. Winds will be gusty and could reach 35mph at times. Arctic air then settles in late Tuesday into Wednesday as we watch for a weak system working in from the northwest. That could be followed up by a bigger system late next week.

As mentioned, the models look pretty different from one run to the next, so we are just taking them as snapshots…

GFS

Canadian

Euro

Have no fear, the next run will have something different in terms of the evolution and precipitation coverage, type and timing.

This continues to look like a colder than normal pattern through much of the month of December. While it doesn’t mean there can’t be some spikes in there, it means the overall averages are skewed cold.

The GFS Ensembles keep showing some way below normal numbers…

Keep in mind, the farther out in time, the harder it is to see big departures one way or the other, so the model smooths it out.

Here’s what the same model has for the average temperature departure from December 11 through December 21…

I will have updates later today. Until then, have a good one and take care.

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