Daily Archives: December 7, 2019

Time posted: 8:17 pm

Saturday Evening Thoughts

Good evening, folks. I wanted to drop by to share the late day runs of the GFS and European Models. Both of those decided to trend closer to what the Canadian was showing earlier as they start to see the wave of low pressure idea a little bit better.

The earlier run of the European Model had little if any snow across Kentucky on Tuesday, but I pointed out how it did not match the Euro Ensembles. Well the very next run of the Euro decided to surpass the Ensembles…

The snow map from that run of the Euro is closer to what the Canadian was showing..

The new average snowfall from the Euro Ensembles is more expansive…

The GFS also decided to deliver a little better shot of snow than it’s last run and is even trying to fire up a separate behind the Tuesday one…

Here’s the snow map from the GFS…

The takeaway from all this is we are seeing the models trending toward a better organized system that’s farther west. Is this a trend that will continue? That’s a question I cannot answer as of now. It will be fun to watch the overnight and Sunday runs to see how they roll.

Could this be our first WST of the season for a part of Kentucky? We shall see.

I’ll have the latest with my next update. Until then, enjoy the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 3:54 pm

Saturday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. I’m just getting my first look at the latest models on how they’re handling the early week potential. I’m gonna look over everything this afternoon and evening and put my updated thoughts out with an evening post.

For now, let’s take a look at how differently each model is handling the wave of low pressure and possible round of Tuesday/Tuesday night snow.

The NAM only goes through 1am Wednesday, but you can clearly see the wave idea…

Here’s the snow map from that run through 1am Wednesday…

Here’s the GFS…

GFS Snow map from that run…

GFS Ensembles snow map…

The Canadian is the most enthusiastic snow maker of any model…

Canadian snow map from that run…

Canadian Ensembles snow map…

The European Model wet from super progressive to super slow and is back to super progressive…

The Euro snow map from that run…

The Euro Ensembles snow map says the operational Euro is having issues…

I will have another update this evening, so check back. Until then, have a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 2:10 am

Watching The Early Week Setup

Good Saturday, everyone. It’s the weekend and the weather is looking pretty darn good for all those Christmas shoppers across the land. By Monday and Tuesday, things go downhill pretty quickly as an arctic front works into the region with a lot of rain, wind and the potential for some snow as temps crash.

As we get closer to the early week system, you are starting to see the models showing the wave of low pressure idea I’ve been throwing out there for the better part of the past week. Much of what happens with the evolution of this depends on a piece of energy coming from the southwest…

If you want snow in Kentucky, you want to see that get out a little ahead of the arctic cold trough coming in from the northwest. Does this trough pick up some of that or does it leave it behind to let it more more to the east. That’s the difference between snow and no snow for us.

Obviously, I’ve been on the wave train for a while now, so I think it can impact part of Kentucky with snow. Here’s a rough outline of the setup…

Where does that front get to before it slows down and lets this ripple of low pressure ride along it? That’s what I have to nail down over the weekend.

The models are getting more interested in this feature. Here’s what the late Friday evening GFS looks like…

Obviously, it’s keying on a band of snow across parts of Kentucky. Here’s the snow map from that particular run…

The Canadian Model is also showing a similar process, but is a bit farther southeast with the system and still has the arctic clipper on Wednesday…

Here’s the snow map from that particular run of the Canadian…

The European Model went from being the most progressive with this system to being the absolute slowest…

Here’s the snow map from that run of the Euro…

Don’t put faith in any one model run you see here or coming out today. Let’s watch for trends to see when and where this wave of low pressure may form along the front on Tuesday.

This busy pattern looks to continue for the foreseeable future with a big system next weekend and another one coming behind it…

I will have updates later today, but the midday update will be a little delayed by the Lexington Christmas Parade. Come out and see us. 🙂

Have a good one and take care.

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