Daily Archives: December 11, 2019

Time posted: 7:55 pm

Evening Thoughts On A Wednesday

Good evening, everyone. It’s a calm and cold evening, but the focus is on a very active setup starting Friday and continuing into next week. That brings a lot of ugly weather with a bigger storm system threat for late Sunday and Monday.

The first system rolls in here on Friday and may have a touch of freezing rain on the leading edge of that, especially in the valleys. That would quickly change to plain old rain and continue through Friday night. A second system follows that up on Saturday and brings rain and a touch of snow with it.

Here’s how the NAM sees these two systems…

The GFS offers up something similar…

The storm coming behind this continues to look like a potential Ohio Valley winter storm. That could impact our region with all forms of precipitation.

The European Model is following the outline of what we talked about in an earlier post…

The GFS continues to be the lone wolf in strengthening this storm and working it all the way into the Great Lakes…

I’m not saying that can’t happen, but it’s the least likely solution to verify. Plus, it’s the GFS. 🙂

Have a great evening and take care.


Time posted: 12:28 pm

Some Wednesday Midday Thoughts

Good afternoon, folks. After a frigid morning, the sun is helping boost temps into the 30s this afternoon. As we roll ahead, we are dealing with a very active setup later this week through next week. It’s one that will likely bring all forms of precipitation to Kentucky.

Let me start things out by saying I know KWC is having some issues and I’m working to get those resolved. If you’re a web person in the Lexington area and would like to help out, feel free to reach out to me at chris.bailey@wkyt.com . I’m looking for someone to give the current site a tuneup to fix the issues, while doing a redesign at the same time. Hit me up and I’ll give you my thoughts on it.

In terms of the weather, things pick up late Thursday night into early Friday as a system moves in from the south. This will bring rain in here on Friday and this could begin as a touch of freezing rain, especially in the valleys. That system then turns into a big storm along the east coast as a weaker system moves in here from the northwest on Saturday. That would bring rain and some snow through Saturday night.

Here’s how the GFS is seeing this…

A bigger system will quickly follow that up from Sunday afternoon through early next week. This should bring all modes of precipitation to the bluegrass state and looks like an Ohio Valley winter storm.

The GFS continues to be on an island in how it handles this system…

The low is likely to be much more west to east compared to what the GFS shows. This looks like a setup where one low runs toward West Virginia or the southern Appalachian Mountains, with another low forming just east of it. The Canadian is trying to show this. Here’s what that model looks like with the weekend system and the one following it…

I will have another update this evening. Make it a good one and take care.


Time posted: 2:11 am

A Loaded Pattern Ahead

Good Wednesday, everyone. The snow has ended across southeastern Kentucky and things look calm ofr  afew days, but don’t get used to it. We have a pretty loaded pattern on tap from late this week through next week and it’s likely to bring additional winter weather threats to Kentucky.

Our day is starting with quite a bit of snow on the ground in southeastern Kentucky. Several areas reported 4″ amounts and road crews were actually plowing some roads and several accidents were also reported. Numerous schools are also closed today because of the poor travel conditions, yet a Winter Weather Advisory was never issued by the NWS in Jackson.

The first system we are tracking arrives late Thursday night into Friday morning. It’s mainly a rain event, but temps will be around freezing as it arrives and that could lead to a touch of freezing rain…

Temps go above freezing pretty quickly, so rain will then take over on what looks like a gloomy day.

That system likely blows up as it works up the east coast Friday night into Saturday. That’s when a weak system dives in here behind it on Saturday and brings another round of rain and some snow…



That gets pushed to our east by a much bigger storm coming in behind it later Sunday into Monday. This is likely a significant winter storm for the Ohio Valley into early next week. The storm can bring all modes of winter precipitation to our region…


The Canadian looks similar to the Euro…

As usual, the GFS lives in a different world and wraps this storm up and takes it into the Great Lakes…

Right now, a lakes cutter isn’t the most viable solution. If anything, I would watch for a storm that moves more west-east than the models currently show.

I will have your usual updates later today. Make it a good one and take care.