Daily Archives: December 14, 2019

Time posted: 7:41 pm

Saturday Evening Update

Good evening, folks. Here’s hoping you’re making the best of what has been a very dreary weather day across our region. As we move ahead, our focus is on the winter weather and flood threat coming from late Sunday through Tuesday morning.

My thoughts continue to be the same with winter weather and flooding possible across Kentucky. Where you live will be the determining factor on which of those you could see.

Let’s start with the late Sunday-early Monday winter weather potential. My thoughts since Friday remain unchanged…

Areas across northern Kentucky are likely to pick up accumulating during this time, especially in the Covington area. Accumulations will tail off fairly quickly the farther south you get down toward Interstate 64.

Rain takes over as the main precip on Monday and is likely to be heavy at times. This could be enough to cause flooding issues across parts of central and eastern Kentucky.

As colder air comes back in Monday night and early Tuesday, another band of snow may show up in northern Kentucky and slowly slip to the south and southeast. Right now, that looks light.

The models continue to trend farther southeast with the low. We have some pretty good agreement among the various models.

GFS Ensembles

GFS Ensembles snow map

GFS

GFS snow map

NAM

NAM snow map

NAM freezing rain map

The Canadian snow map continues to be more generous…

Euro snow map

All those snow maps are through Tuesday and not just for the Sunday night portion of the storm.

For the rain numbers, the GFS and NAM are showing numbers that can cause flooding issues to develop…

GFS

NAM 

This is a nice Ohio Valley winter storm and will bring a lot of different weather our way through Tuesday. I will have another update, including a First Call For Snowfall, later tonight.

Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 11:13 am

Winter Weather and Heavy Rain Ahead

Good middle of the day, everyone. I actually had a little time to slap together a quick update on the setup from Sunday through early Tuesday. A developing Ohio Valley winter storm continues to look on target and will bring Kentucky winter weather and the potential for high water issues.

Before we get to all that, let’s focus on what’s going on out there today. Heavy rain is moving out of eastern Kentucky, but another weak system is diving into the west. That has a touch of rain and snowflake action with it, but it decreases as it rolls east. Here’s regional radar…

As far as the winter weather is concerned for late Sunday into early Monday, my target area has not changed…

The northern half of the state continues to have the best threat for snow and a mix. I do expect accumulations to take place, especially in the far north.

The GFS continues to track the low farther south and east…

Here’s the snow map from the GFS…

The axis of heaviest rain fairly broad, but farther south from earlier runs…

The NAM was way north with earlier runs, but it’s farther south now…

Here’s the snow map from the NAM

It is also showing a swath of heavy rain…

The short range Canadian only goes through Sunday night, but it’s the farthest south with the initial snowfall…

Moral of the weather story, the farther north you live, the better the chance at picking up on a snowfall Sunday evening into Monday morning. Much of central and eastern Kentucky could be looking at flooding issues developing Monday before colder air comes back in and switches the rain over to some snow late Monday night.

I will see you guys with another update this evening. Have a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 2:07 am

Winter Weather For Some Late Sunday

Good Saturday, everyone. It’s another pretty ugly day for many across the bluegrass state as one storm system slowly pulls away. As it moves to our northeast, the next one rolls in from the west late Sunday. This will bring one heck of a temperature spread and a shot of winter weather for some.

Let’s begin with today’s rain as it pushes across central and eastern Kentucky. As low pressure deepens to the northeast, the air gets cold enough for a few flakes in the northeast. Later in the afternoon, the action becomes more scattered from west to east…

Sunday starts quiet, but ends with a bit increase in the action as our winter storm targets the Ohio Valley. Rain, snow and a mix of precipitation works from west to east late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. The north sees mainly snow, with the south seeing mainly rain. In between will be a mixed bag. Here’s the early look at how that may play out…

Accumulating snow is a good bet across parts of the north during this time.

As the low works into Kentucky and West Virginia on Monday, we are going to see a mega temperature spread from north to south. We may see a better than 30 degree difference from northern Kentucky to far southeastern Kentucky. Rain will be the primary precipitation type on Monday.

Once the low goes by to the east, much colder air swings back in from the northwest, giving us some wraparound snow Monday night into Tuesday.

The GFS Ensembles show the whole scenario pretty well…

Here’s the snow map from the GFS Ensembles through Tuesday…

The European Model is similar in bringing our swath of accumulating snow into northern Kentucky. It’s also a little flatter and farther south with the low, keeping the mixed precip line close to northern Kentucky through the entire event. It’s also beginning to see the flakes behind the system…

Euro Snow Map…

The Canadian is similar to the above models and looks a lot like the GFS Ensembles with some wraparound light stuff. Once again, check out the stripe of decent snow across northern Kentucky…

It’s been pretty cool to watch the GFS do what we thought it would do and come way south.  A few days ago, the model had a low near Detroit. Now it’s crossing eastern Kentucky instead…

The GFS snow map is coming in line with most of the other guidance in targeting northern Kentucky…

As expected, Northern Kentucky is in the best zone for snow and winter weather with this system. Can it still come a little farther south? Yes, but I don’t expect some major deviation at this point.

My midday update may be a little delayed because I will be ringing the Salvation Army Bell at the Fayette Mall today from noon-2. Come on out and say hi and put some money in the kettle and do a little good this Christmas season. 🙂

Have a good one and take care.

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