Daily Archives: December 15, 2019

Time posted: 7:34 pm

Sunday Evening Trackers

Good evening, everyone. Snow is coming down across areas of northern Kentucky and it’s leading to slick travel conditions. This action increases this evening into the wee hours of the morning. Once we get past this, we focus on a flood threat and the likelihood of some wraparound snow moving back in Monday night and Tuesday.

For more than a week, we have targeted this as an Ohio Valley winter storm and the OV is right in the crosshairs of this storm. Everything from a Winter Storm Warning to a Flood Watch is out…

You can see the Flood Watch out for much of Kentucky as rainfall averages 1″-3″ in that area, with locally higher amounts.

I’m surprised areas of Indiana and Ohio aren’t under a Winter Storm Warning. I’m also wondering if we may also get a few more counties added to the Advisory in the north…

I will have updates as needed this evening, so check back.

Here are your winter weather tracking toys for the evening…

Covington area

http://www.trimarc.org/images/milestone/CCTV_06_75_1908.jpg

http://www.trimarc.org/images/milestone/CCTV_06_471_0045.jpg

http://www.trimarc.org/images/milestone/CCTV_06_471_0006.jpg

No image available.

http://www.trimarc.org/images/milestone/CCTV_06_275_0128.jpg

Florence

No image available.

Interstate 71 in Gallatin County

http://rwis.kytc.ky.gov/itscams/D06/current_I710665.jpg

Maysville

Louisville

http://www.trimarc.org/images/milestone/CCTV_05_71_0116.jpg

No image available.

No image available.

Georgetown

Frankfort

Morehead

Lexington


Make it a great rest of your evening and take care.

13 Comments

Time posted: 12:35 pm

Sunday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. Our storm system working into the region appears to behaving well, so far. This will bring winter weather and the potential for flooding to Kentucky, Which of those you get all depend on exactly where you live.

A Winter Weather Advisory is our for areas of northern Kentucky…

This is the area I’ve been highlighting for snow and winter weather rolling in later this evening into early Monday. My thoughts haven’t changed…

I will have all your tracking tools in a bit.

My thoughts on the rest of this system from Monday through Tuesday also remain unchanged. Heavy rain sets up across parts of the region on Monday into Monday night, with a switch back to winter weather coming from northwest to southeast Monday night and Tuesday.

In terms of the heavy rain, I am concerned about flooding and flash flooding. We’ve had a lot of rain over the past month and change, our waterways are already running pretty good and there is no vegetation to soak up the water. That adds to the high water potential. Here’s the area I’m most concerned with…

The rainfall forecast from the models backs this up…

NAM

Hi Res NAM

Canadian

GFS

I’ll drop by for another update later this evening. As usual, I have you al set to track the winter action as it targets northern Kentucky…

Covington area

http://www.trimarc.org/images/milestone/CCTV_06_75_1908.jpg

http://www.trimarc.org/images/milestone/CCTV_06_471_0045.jpg

No image available.

http://www.trimarc.org/images/milestone/CCTV_06_275_0128.jpg

Florence

No image available.

Interstate 71 in Gallatin County

http://rwis.kytc.ky.gov/itscams/D06/current_I710665.jpg

Maysville

Louisville

http://www.trimarc.org/images/milestone/CCTV_05_71_0116.jpg

No image available.

No image available.

Georgetown

Frankfort

Morehead

Lexington


Make it a good one and take care.

22 Comments

Time posted: 1:52 am

Winter Weather and Heavy Rain

Good Sunday, everyone. We continue to watch our Ohio Valley winter storm slowly get organized as it rolls into the region later today. For Kentucky, this brings a swath of winter weather, heavy rain and possible flooding, then a little more winter weather.

Here’s a breakdown of how this looks to play out:

  • Much of the daylight hours are dry across the state as clouds quickly thicken.
  • A sharp looking band of winter weather and snow develops and rolls eastward late this afternoon into the evening, impacting the northern half of the state.
  • Later this evening, we see the moisture become more widespread with rain across the southern half of the state and the snow and winter stuff in the northern half.
  • Areas of northern Kentucky will likely be dealing with a snowfall through early Monday. Right now, a swath of 1″-3″ appears possible. My map will show the area of interest in a bit.
  • There’s the chance for some light accumulations as far south as the Interstate 64 corridor, but this really drops off fairly quickly from the north.
  • The mixed line then presses JUST to the north of the Ohio River early Monday as low pressure works into southern and eastern Kentucky. Just a few miles farther to the south and east and it would pull that winter line south.
  • Heavy rainfall is likely across areas of the rest of the state. Some folks could pick up 3″+ of rain out of this, leading to a flood and flash flood threat. Right now, that best threat may end up across the southeast.
  • As the low works into West Virginia Monday night, the winter line quickly sinks back into Kentucky with light accumulating snow possible in the north. Light snows then sweep across much of central and eastern Kentucky into early Tuesday with light accumulations possible before the action ends.

Here’s my outlook for the winter stuff coming this evening into early Monday…

As we check on the models, we do find a little bit of a change going on with the NAM. The NAM breaks this up into two systems now. The first late today into Monday, with a second low being farther south and east Monday night and Tuesday, delivering a better shot of winter weather to more of the state.

Here’s the first part…

And the second part…

Here’s the NAM snow total from both of those…

The European Model is trending in that direction…

The GFS held on to a similar solution to what it had before…

Here’s the snow map from the GFS through the same time…

The GFS Ensembles are a little more generous…

The Canadian Model is too…

 

I will have updates later today, so check back. I leave you with some early Sunday tracking tools…

Enjoy your Sunday and take care.

26 Comments