Daily Archives: December 18, 2019

Time posted: 8:16 pm

A Few Evening Thoughts

Good evening, everyone. It’s a frigid day wrapping up in the bluegrass state as temps stayed in the 20s with a wind chill in the teens. Throw in a few flurries and snow showers and this was a nice winter day for folks who like this stuff. Rolling forward, though, is a different story.

Readings tonight will drop deep into the teens in many areas. Some low teens can show up in the north as wind chills come in even colder.

Temps slowly rebound over the next few days, but I’m still focusing on the southern storm system that may come far enough north to deliver some rain into Kentucky. I obsessing over this because so many models had this way down south and it just didn’t pass the look test. Now we see more and more models coming north and bringing rain into Kentucky.

European

The European Ensembles are even farther north…

Mild temps will be noted around this and that looks to take up much of our Christmas week. That said, the Euro is trying to put a dent into that shortly after Christmas…

Enjoy the rest of your evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:41 pm

Wednesday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. It’s a cold winter’s day across Kentucky as a few flurries and snow showers fly. As we roll ahead, the pattern continues to look mild just in time for Christmas week. Obviously, that’s not good news for anyone wanting a White Christmas. It ain’t happening.

Once again Flood Warnings are out for several areas of the Commonwealth…

The snow showers and flurries are flying, especially across northern and eastern parts of the state. A few coatings will show up…

Temps today stay in the 20s for much of the state, especially in central and eastern Kentucky. Wind chills are deep into the teens. The NAM family and the Canadian nailed today’s cold, while the GFS and Euro were way to warm and couldn’t even find today’s clouds, let alone snowflakes.. This seems to be something happening more regularly than before. The medium range models have had a major struggle to start this winter.

Speaking of the Canadian, it’s the only medium range operational model showing our southern system impacting Kentucky with a few showers this weekend…

I’m still not sold on moisture making it this far north, but I do think there is a decent chance of that happening. Meanwhile, the GFS is on the other end of the spectrum with the storm working through the central Gulf of Mexico…

Temps are pretty darn mild around this into Christmas week. There is likely to be a dramatic swing in the pattern as we head into the final weekend of the year, through.

Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 2:12 am

Milder Days On The Way

Good Wednesday, everyone. It’s a seasonally cold day across Kentucky as a weak cold front drops in from the north. From there, the focus is on a a milder overall look as we inch closer to Christmas and on a southern storm system that tries to impact our weather.

Let’s start with what’s going on out there today and roll forward. We still have several counties under a Flood Warning…

A weak cold front is crossing the state today, bringing the chance for a snowflake to the north and northeast…

Temps will range from the upper 20s north to the middle 30s in the south. Gusty winds will make it feel much colder and that’s a trend that will take us through early Thursday.

Temps by Thursday afternoon shoot into the upper 30s north to upper 40s west. This kicks off a milder period with temps reaching the 50s for some Friday into the weekend.

At the same time, a massive storm system will be working slowly across the deep south. This will bring a lot of wind and rain to that part of the world, but can it get far enough north to impact our weather? I continue to maintain this is a possibility.

The GFS Ensembles are seeing this…

Many of the operational models are still way south, but they’re coming north a bit. The Canadian actually brings some rain into the state…

The Euro is closer…

Regardless, this is a mild pattern as we head into Christmas week. That will change late in the week, but things aren’t going to feel much like the season as the Grinch does some work.

I will have updates later today. Make it a good one and take care.

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