Daily Archives: December 20, 2019

Time posted: 7:42 pm

Looking At The Pattern Ahead

Good evening, everyone. Clouds and milder than normal temps continue across the bluegrass state into the evening. Both of those should be fairly common through the weekend as we watch a southern system that can bring some rain into Kentucky.

We know the pattern is skewed milder than normal this weekend into Christmas week, but I need a challenge and that’s what I’ve been doing with our southern system. I get bored easily with nice weather and I have no idea how all these new weather people only want nice weather to talk about. I digress. 🙂

The models continue to indicate a farther north moving shield of rain than what we’ve been seeing in the past several days.

The Hi Res NAM only goes through Sunday evening, but shows the rain getting into southern Kentucky by this time…

This continues to match the look of the Euro Ensembles…

Temps behind this stay mild through next week as we start to focus on a pattern change by next weekend into the closing days of the year.

The European Model shows this change well…

The GFS is also seeing this…

This change has been signaled for a while now on the European Ensembles and that continues to show up well as we end the year and begin 2020…

Hang in there, winter weather lovers, it’s still way early in the game.

Have a great evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:30 pm

Friday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. The only game in weatherville continues to be a southern storm system that tries to throw a little rain into Kentucky later this weekend. It’s a system the models continue to bring a little farther north with each run.

The best chance for rain continues to be across the southern and southeastern parts of the state. The European Ensembles are the farthest north with the Sunday-early Monday rain potential…

The new NAM is targeting southeastern Kentucky, but is just a bit farther south than earlier runs…

The GFS continues to correct itself farther north with each run and is now very close to bringing rain into southern Kentucky…

Bless it.

The ICON also jumped north to bring a little rain into the southeast…

Let’s remember where this all started with the models taking this system due east across the Gulf and diving it southeast into the Caribbean. I said then that looked suspicious and we should see a northward solution and that’s what the models are seeing now.

It continues to be a mild look into Christmas week, but a pattern flip looks to take place as we send 2019 out and usher in 2020. This continues to show up well on the Euro Ensembles…

I will have another update this evening, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 2:11 am

Southern System Inches North

Good Friday, everyone. We have a fairly mild pattern settling in for the weekend and into Christmas week and that’s making Santa a little grumpy. This mild setup effectively ends any hope for a White Christmas. I know… Blah, Blah, Blah.

But, we do have a southern system to watch for later this weekend. That’s a system that MAY get far enough north to bring some rain into Kentucky. The NAM continues to bring the rain much farther north than any of the other models on Sunday.

The NAM only goes through 7am Monday, but shows the rain getting pretty deep into the Bluegrass state…

The Euro keeps inching this thing farther north as well…

The Canadian is also bringing some rain into the state…

The GFS continues to be in it’s own little world and has this system WAY south…

Bless it’s heart!

I will focus on the post Christmas pattern change with updates late today and into the weekend. Make it a good one and take care.

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