Daily Archives: December 22, 2019

Time posted: 7:54 pm

Sunday Evening Thoughts

Good evening, everyone. Our southern storm system is spreading rain into parts of southern and southeastern Kentucky while the rest of the region deals with dry weather. The mild weather looks to continue through Christmas week before changes show up by the final weekend of the year and into the start of 2020.

Let’s begin with today’s setup and roll ahead. My focus on the southern system is paying off as it is indeed bringing rain far enough north to impact parts of the bluegrass state. Our far southern and southeastern counties are the ones seeing rain moving in tonight…

Let’s review, up until a few days ago, absolutely zero models had any rain even close to Kentucky and several of them still have no rain into the bluegrass state. The model forecasts of a bowling ball system in the Gulf then turning southeast into the deep Caribbean were suspicious from the get go and you’re now seeing why. Buying models at face value and regurgitating that as a forecast is, unfortunately, where we are in today’s weather world.

Speaking of, every single model has a much different take on the trough ejecting out of the west and southwest next weekend. This plays right into the biases of the GFS and, especially, the EURO. The GFS will send this out too fast and jump on a northern system. The EURO will hold the energy back because that’s a major flaw of the model.

The Canadian Model represents a compromise between the two from next weekend into the final few days of the year…

I have no idea how exactly all that plays out because it’s a complicated scenario, but it represents a big change from the current setup.

Another illustration of the change comes via the GFS Ensembles snowfall forecast. The new run shows this through next Sunday…

If we add in the following 7 days, we continue to see a big southward advancement of the snow potential…

That has flake potential to near the Gulf Coast, so it’s seeing some pretty good cold shots across the country.

Have a happy rest of your Sunday and take care.

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Time posted: 1:54 am

Where Is This Pattern Going?

Good Sunday, everyone. It’s another mild and mainly cloudy day across Kentucky and we even have a little rain making a run at our southern counties. This mild weather takes us through Christmas week, but what comes after that? This is the big question and it’s one winter weather lovers are going to like a whole lot more.

Let’s begin with today and the chance for a little southern rainfall. The best chance comes very late today into early Monday and is confined to far southern and southeastern Kentucky. If we can get just one sprinkle north of the Tennessee border at some point through Monday, my tracking mission will be accomplished! 🙂

Here’s regional radar…

Temps are deep into the 50s and this is a trend that takes us through Christmas Day and likely through next Friday and Saturday. Temps may eventually make a run at 60 on a widespread basis.

Next weekend, the changes begin as cold air enters the country once again. We’ve seen how the Ensembles have been showing deepening troughs taking control of the country and now the operational models are keying on this…

To see the return of winter into much of the country, look no further than the snow map from the ensembles. Here’s the snow map for the next 7 days…

Now, let’s add another week to that…

As I look at the pattern setting up for January, it looks similar to the one we had back in November. That one delivered very cold temps and even some record snows. If we can get that same pattern in the heart of winter, it could be fun.

I will have another update later today, so check back. Have a wonderful Sunday and take care.

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