Daily Archives: December 23, 2019

Time posted: 7:40 pm

Christmas Eve Eve Update

Good evening, everyone. Our Christmas Eve Eve is a mild and dry one across Kentucky and this setup carries us through the big day. As we head into the final weekend of the year, we have a major pattern change ready to take place.

I’m not going to touch on the mild weather because y’all know all about that.

The NAM is still trying to throw in a few sprinkles in here for Christmas Day…

The change comes this weekend into the closing days of the year, but the details of it still have to be ironed out.

The GFS is actually the only consistent model in what it’s showing, but that doesn’t make it right. I gives us thunderstorms, gusty winds, a major temp drop and some wraparound snows by Sunday night and Monday…

Here’s the temp crash associated with that system…

And the wind chills…

Additional cold blasts are likely into the first week of the new year and the Ensembles have been showing that for a while now. The GFS Ensembles average snowfall (for fun), shows the snow chances through this period…

Have a great Christmas Eve Eve and take care.

10 Comments

Time posted: 12:19 pm

Monday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. Mild weather is playing the role of the Grinch and giving us a very mild stretch of weather for the big Christmas season. As we roll into the weekend, we see some big changes rolling in as Old Man Winter starts to show back up.

We know the week is mild, but I’m also watching for a little cloud cover from time to time. The NAM is spitting out some clouds for Christmas Day and it’s also showing the potential for a few sprinkles and isolated showers…

As we head into the weekend, we watch a trough in the west ejecting out into the plains and then into our part of the world. How this all plays out exactly is yet to be determined. Regardless, this ushers in a winter looking pattern to end the year, with that pattern getting fully established in early January.

Let’s focus on the weekend system, first. As mentioned, the models don’t agree on how this plays out and flip from run to run. The GFS shows a potent cold front sweeping through here with showers and storms, gusty winds, a big temp drop and then some wraparound snows…

Watch the temp drop from Saturday evening into Sunday then check out how cold the temps are through the rest of the year…

The ICON has a similar look to the GFS…

As we head into later next week, we are likely to see another cold shot diving into the region with a potential winter weather maker. Again, you will see the models handle everything very differently from run to run…

GFS

I will send you another update later this evening. Until then, make it a good one and take care.

5 Comments

Time posted: 2:12 am

A Mild Christmas Week Begins

Good Monday, everyone. Christmas week is off and running on a mild note, but it’s a week where clouds are going to be an issue at times. By the time we head into the upcoming weekend, some hefty changes are showing up with a return to winter for much of the country to close out the year and kick off 2020.

Let us start with today and roll ahead. Temps are mild, but clouds are an issue across areas of central and eastern Kentucky. This is from our major storm working across the south and southeastern parts of the country. This is just far enough north to provide a few showers into extreme southeastern parts of Kentucky early this morning. Here’s your regional radar…

The farther west and north you go, the better the weather will be as the sun makes an appearance.

Temps for the week are mild and that’s a given. Highs generally run in the 50s to low 60s. That’s a trend right on through Friday and Saturday.

Once into the weekend, we see a change finally showing up, but how this evolves is still a work in progress. The models aren’t playing nice with one another…

GFS

Canadian

Euro

There isn’t much run to run consistency and that’s to be expected with a pattern change.

I will look a little deeper into that change with updates later today. Have a good one and take care.

12 Comments