Daily Archives: December 26, 2019

Time posted: 7:43 pm

Thursday Evening Update

Good evening, folks. As our mild Christmas week rolls on, it’s time to focus on the storm system rolling in here for the weekend. This will bring a lot of rain, wind, thunder and a big temp crash to our region. It should also bring a few flakes in here before the year is finished.

I’m still liking the consistency of the GFS with how it’s handling our storm…

The GFS Ensembles seem to agree…

Heavy rain is the primary concern for Sunday and Sunday night and this could cause high water issues. The placement still has to be nailed down and you can see a little disagreement from the GFS and the Ensembles…

GFS

GFS Ensembles

Regardless, that’s a lot of rain and it could come via some thunderstorms. A few strong storms will also be possible, especially across the west.

A dry slot is likely to come in behind this on Monday as our low wraps up and closes off in the Great Lakes. It may come just enough to the south to bring a few flurries or snow showers into the state late Monday through New Year’s Eve. The Ensembles show the flake chances…

I doubt we can get any kind of sticking snowfall, but some flakes may fly.

Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:27 pm

Watching The Weekend Setup

Good afternoon, everyone. It’s another mild day in the Commonwealth as we continue to focus on our weekend storm system. This brings some ugly weather before Old Man Winter rolls his way into town for the closing days of the year.

We are seeing plenty of clouds today and those clouds are spitting out a few drops of rain. This action is rather limited, though…

The weekend storm system is going to bring a lot of different weather our way. Here’s a breakdown of how things may play out:

  • Windy and mild weather will be with us on Saturday. Highs are deep into the 60s with some late day showers and storms possible.
  • As our low cranks across the plains and rides into the upper midwest, it drags a cold front toward the region. Watch for another low to pop along this front.
  • Widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop from Saturday night through Sunday. Some of the storms may even be on the strong side, especially in the west.
  • Heavy rainfall of 1″-3″ will be possible across areas of the state. The best chance of that may be into central areas.
  • Cold air crashes in behind this with a break in the precip initially. After that, a period of light snow and snow showers wraps in from the northwest later Monday into Tuesday. A few flakes may continue through New Year’s Morning.

This is something the GFS has been showing very well and very consistently…

Here’s the rainfall forecast from that model run…

With or without thunderstorms, gusty winds could pose a few problems…

The Canadian is coming around to what the GFS is cooking…

Here’s the rainfall forecast from the Canadian…

This kicks off a super-active pattern with cold shots diving into the country and an active southern storm track…

I will have the latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm and with another KWC update this evening. Have a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 1:48 am

Big Changes For The Weekend

Good Thursday, everyone. Here’s hoping each of you had a wonderful Christmas. It certainly was a mild one and that mild weather will carry us into the first part of the weekend. That’s when a big change shows up as much colder air crashes in, with a more wintry pattern taking shape.

I’m also going to take a look at why you shouldn’t give up hope on a winter turnaround.

Before we get to the future, let’s look back at one of the warmest Christmas’s on record…

Toe make those numbers even more impressive, they started out deep into the 20s in several locations. Nothing like a 40 degree temp rise on Christmas Day! 🙂

Temps today are back into near record range as more clouds show up. With a little better moisture creeping in, I can’t rule out isolated showers…

There’s a little better chance for a shower or two going up on Friday as our southwest flow really kicks in. This is ahead of our weekend storm system that’s set to bring big changes.

Saturday is a windy and mild day with potential record highs. Clouds will continue to thicken as some late day showers and storms try to show up, especially in the west. Those showers and storms increase Saturday night into Sunday as our front moves in from the west. This slows down, allowing for another low to develop along the boundary on Sunday. Heavy rain, a few storms, high winds and a temp crash battle it out for top billing on the weather marquee.

We still find the GFS being the most progressive with the whole setup with some snowflakes flying Monday into New Year’s Eve…

That’s a big wind maker with gusts of more than 40mph showing up…

Here’s how the Canadian sees it…

Not surprisingly, the EURO is the most wrapped up and farthest west…

This is a very active pattern taking shape as troughs dig into the country. Throw in a busy southern storm track and things may get interesting at some point.

So does December weather have any direct correlation to the rest of winter? The short answer is NO, NO and NO.

One of the most unheralded winters in Kentucky history is the winter of 1984/85. It turned into an epic winter with snow cover for nearly 50 straight days. But, that winter got off to a terrible start in December and was one of the warmest on record. Look at the daily numbers from Lexington for December 1984…

Temps were near 70 for the final week of the month and that warmth carried over into day one of the new year, but the bottom dropped out…

That extreme cold and snow continued deep into February…

That’s a run of 6 weeks without temps getting higher than 37 degrees. Snowfall was common across the state, with areas of eastern Kentucky getting more than 2 feet of snow in February alone.

I’m not saying this winter finds the same turnaround, but to say winter is over is absurd. There are many other examples of how December had zero bearing on the rest of the winter. 1989/90 is another winter with a major flip, but things went the opposite way with the coldest December on record and then warmth.

Historical perspective is sorely lacking in the weather community around here, especially with the young folks that think weather only started with the invention of social media trolling. 🙂

I will have updates later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

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